Alert archive / Oklahoma / Flash Flood Warnings in 1998

Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Tulsa, OK

September 14, 1998Adair County, Cherokee County, Sequoyah County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this flash flood warning at Sep 14, 1998, 5:18 AM CDT for Adair County, Cherokee County, Sequoyah County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline the Iowa Environmental Mesonet reconstructed for it; the warning itself named whole counties.

The facts

Issued: Sep 14, 1998, 5:18 AM CDT (10:18 UTC)
Expired: Sep 14, 1998, 8:00 AM CDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Whole counties; the outline is the Mesonet’s reconstruction

Counties Adair County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Sequoyah County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 71 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 10.3 hours before the alert went out and 153 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 888 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 286 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 349 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
TTAA00 KTUL 141024
FFWTUL
OKC001-021-135-141300-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
518 AM CDT MON SEP 14 1998

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR
     CHEROKEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SEQUOYAH COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA      
     ADAIR COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 800 AM CDT

* AT 518 AM CDT RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN MOVING BACK INTO
PARTS OF ADAIR...SEQUOYAH AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES. FROM 2 TO 5
INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THIS AREA DURING THE NIGHT AND
ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES MAY FALL THROUGH 8AM THIS MORNING. THE 
RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND
RAPID RISES ON CREEKS. LOW WATER CROSSING WILL BE ESPECIALLY
DANGEROUS EARLY THIS MORNING.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE... SCRAPER...PEGGS...ELDON...
  COOKSON...TAHLEQUAH...BOX...MARBLE CITY...BRUSHY...WATTS...
  BALLARD...WESTVILLE...PROCTOR...CHRISTIE...BARON...BUNCH AND
  STILWELL

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT
QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY
IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3589 9501 3552 9507 3551 9450 3614 9457
          3608 9518

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Sep 14, 4:55 AM CDT, 23 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 14, 4:55 AM CDT, 23 minutes before

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
455 AM CDT MON SEP 14 1998

PROBLEM(S) OF THE DAY:
WILL THERE BE ANY FLOODING?
HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL?
POPS
LOW CLOUDS

REMNANTS OF FRANCES HAVE MOSTLY SPREAD NEWD INTO MO AHEAD OF SLOW
MOVING S/W TROUGH. INTERESTING SFC MAP SHOWS SFC LOW N OF CNU WITH
WK FRONT EXTENDING TO W OF BVO TO OKC TO CDS. WITH SLOW MOVEMENT OF
S/W TROF AND LACK OF SFC RIDGING BEHIND FRONT...THINK FRONT WILL NOT
MOVE VERY QUICKLY TODAY. AM NOT OPTIMISTIC ABOUT SHRA MOVING OUT OF
THE ERN ZONES...BUT DO THINK THAT RAINFALL RATES WILL DECREASE SOME
TODAY AS LIFTING WEAKENS AND PW VALUES DECREASE TO 1.5-2.0 INCHES VS
THE 2-2.3 INCH VALUES THE LAST 36 HOURS. MODELS..ESP THE ETA...KEEP
TRYING TO GEN UP SOME MORE PRECIP TO THE S ACROSS NE TX BUT DO NOT
SEE THE FORCING FOR THIS. ETA HAS A 40KT H3 JET ACROSS ERN OK WITH
GOOD HORIZ GRADIENT OF WIND SPEED IN THE RR QUAD BUT NGM IS MUCH
WEAKER. EXPECTED LL TEMP GRAD DOES NOT SUPPORT THIS FEATURE SO HAVE
SIDED MORE WITH NGM AND AVN QPF. THINK CHCS OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIP
WEST OF TROPICAL PLUME WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN GUIDANCE BUT SHOULD AT
LEAST KEEP 30 POPS MAYBE HIGHER. DZ HAS MEASURED HERE AT KTUL IN THE
LAST 2 HOURS...ALWAYS A FORECASTERS NEMESIS.

LATEST MRF HOLDS BACK TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF. THE FUTURE OF THIS
FEATURE WILL BE IMPORTANT IF WE PLAN ON KEEPING POPS IN FCST FOR
FRIDAY ON. HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR FRIDAY...BIG S/W TROUGH OVER NW US
SHOULD BECOME BAROTROPIC OVER SRN CA AND NO BIG IMPACT ON LOCAL WX AS
WESTERLIES REMAIN JUST TO OUR N.

FCSTID = 26
TUL   81  65  83  63 /  60  30  30  20
FSM   77  71  83  65 / 100  70  40  30
MLC   79  69  84  64 /  90  60  40  20
BVO   85  62  85  63 /  30  20  20  20
FYV   76  68  79  62 / 100  70  40  30
IDB   78  71  85  65 / 100  60  30  20
BYV   76  68  79  62 / 100  70  40  30
MIO   79  66  81  62 /  90  60  30  30
MKO   79  69  84  64 /  90  60  40  20
F10   81  65  83  63 /  60  30  30  20
HHW   78  71  85  65 / 100  60  30  20

.TUL...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY FOR ZONES OKZ049...OKZ053...
OKZ058...OKZ063...OKZ068>077.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY FOR ZONES ARZ001>002...ARZ010>011...
ARZ019>020...ARZ029.

--------------------
EXPERIMENTAL OUTPUT:

EXPECTED MESOSCALE FEATURE: MODERATE AREAS/BANDS OF PRECIP
GENERAL WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS: CONVECTIVE PRECIP
HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS: GOOD CHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL
NGM CONFIDENCE:  7 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
ETA CONFIDENCE:  6 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
AVN CONFIDENCE:  7 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
FCST CONFIDENCE: 8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
MOST USEFUL TOOL: MOD4EL GRIDS
BEST MODEL FIELD: PRECIP.. H7 OMEGA.. H3 AND H8 WINDS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Sep 13, 11:37 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Cherokee, Muskogee	3 hr
Sep 14, 1:25 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Adair, Cherokee, Sequoyah	4 hr
Sep 14, 3:18 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Ottawa	3 hr
Sep 14, 4:54 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Delaware	3 hr
Sep 14, 5:02 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Muskogee	3 hr
Sep 14, 6:12 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Ottawa	108 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Oklahoma, 1998 Every flash flood warning in 1998

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.