Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
334 PM CST SUN MAR 29 1998

PRECIP AND TEMPS MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS THROUGH TUESDAY.

20Z SURFACE AND SATELLITE PICTURES WERE SHOWING DRYLINE INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS NEAR KCNK.  CU FIELD WAS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE OVER KANSAS
HOWEVER CU POPPING OVER WESTERN KANSAS SUGGESTS COLDER AIR ALOFT WAS
WORKING INTO THE AREA.  AIRMASS IS QUITE UNSTABLE EAST OF THE DRYLINE
AS ADAP SHOWS -8 TO -10 LIFTED INDICES OVER THE CWA.  THINK SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE THIS EVENING AS MID LEVELS COOL DOWN A BIT
BUT EXACT LOCATION OF DRYLINE DURING INITIAL CONVECTION IS UNCERTAIN.

BEYOND THE SHORT TERM AVN AND ETA WERE GENERALLY SIMILAR BUT SOME OF
THE FINER DETAILS WERE HANDLED BETTER INITIALLY BY THE AVN...THUS
WILL FOLLOW AN AVN/ETA MIX AND LEAN TOWARD THE AVN.  OVERNIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH ELONGATES FROM WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
AS CURRENT SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LIFTS NORTHEAST.  SECOND
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IN RESPONSE TO VORT
LOBE SWINGING THROUGH NM.  THIS SETS UP A BOUNDARY ACROSS THROUGH
SOUTHCENTRAL AND EASTCENTRAL KANSAS ON MONDAY.  BEST LIFT IS NOTED IN
THE WARM ADVECTION AREA OVER EASTERN OK/AR INTO SOUTHEAST KS/
SOUTHWEST MO.  THUS WILL TAPER POPS FROM LIKELY IN SOUTHEAST CWA TO
CHANCE IN THE NORTHWEST.  COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS SET UP NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND MORE CLOUD COVER.

AS VORT LOBE AND SURFACE LOW SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT RAIN
CHANCES BEST IN THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE BETTER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE
AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MAXIMIZED.  SURFACE COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES
SO TEMPERATURES NEAR FAN NUMBERS LOOK GOOD.  AS SYSTEMS LIFTS OUT ON
TUESDAY LINGERING SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST.  CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
NOT HELP WARM THINGS UP...FAN NUMBERS PROBABLY A BIT WARM.

.TOP...NONE.

SD