Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
345 AM CST TUE MAR 30 1998

PRECIP CHANCES TODAY...THEN WINDS AND TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS...

HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT IS OVER FOR CWA ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO
DEAL WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING
...AND POSSIBLY STILL SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WATER VAPOR/IR IMAGERY SHOWS SWIRL NEAR GAG AT THIS TIME AND IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ETA POSITION OF VORT MAX AT 06Z. VERY STRONG
UPPER JET ON EAST SIDE OF LOW WILL LIFT LOW NORTHEAST INTO IOWA TODAY
AND MODELS INDICATING SPEED MAX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE PAST
CWA BY LATE MORNING PUTTING FAIR AMOUNT OF NVA/SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
AREA BY THAT TIME. 88-D SHOWING AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL KS AT THIS TIME AHEAD OF SPEED MAX AND THUS WILL GO
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE MORNING...COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS
IN NORTH CENTRAL KS WHERE MODELS INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
BE DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT ACROSS KS TODAY...MODELS SHIFT 500 MB COLD POOL
OF -26 TO -28 ACROSS CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND THUS WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE COULD BRING SOME BRIEF SUNSHINE
OVER EAST CENTRAL KS SO WILL GO WITH HIGHS AROUND 50 THAT AREA...BUT
UP ALONG THE NEBRASKA BORDER...CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD HOLD HIGHS TO THE
MIDDLE 40S. WITH ETA/AVN MODELS INCREASING 850 MB WINDS INTO 35-40 KT
RANGE OVER CWA AS SURFACE LOW CRANKS UP OVER IOWA...WILL GO FOR 20-30
MPH WINDS BY AFTERNOON AND DROP ONLY INTO 15-25 MPH RANGE FOR
TONIGHT. TIME SECTIONS INDICATING CLOUDS MAY NOT CLEAR OUT OF
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING SO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MIDDLE 30S THOSE AREAS
THE NORTH CENTRAL MAY CLEAR OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL GO WITH THE
LOWER 30S THERE.

BETTER WEATHER ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY AS WINDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE
AND CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF ENTIRE CWA BY LATE MORNING. MOS
GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE
RANGE.

.TOP...NONE.

PB