Severe Thunderstorm Warning 175, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
433 PM CDT MON JUN 29 1998

...AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING...AND WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL END
OVERNIGHT ARE MAIN PROBLEMS...

LOWER LAYERS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE OVER CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS RUNNING AROUND 2 INCHES.  MODELS SHOWING BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS MOVING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
AREA OVERNIGHT.  UPPER LEVEL IMPUSLE ALSO HINTED BY MODELS MOVING OUT
OF WESTERN KANSAS AS WELL.  WITH ALL THIS IN MIND THINK "LIKELY" POPS
ARE ON ORDER FOR MUCH OF AREA WITH FLASH FLOODING AGAIN A POSSIBILITY
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.  FRONT SHOULD SLIP OUT OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DIMINISHING BY LATE NIGHT OVER REST OF CWA.
TEMP WISE GUID LOOKS A LITTLE COOL IN THE NORTH CENTRAL SO WILL GO
MORE IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT WITH REST OF
AREA ON TARGET.  QUESTION FOR OUTER PERIODS IS HOW FAR SOUTH BOUNDARY
MAKE IT BEFORE WARM ADVECTION...OVERRUNING RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.  FOR NOW WILL JUST INCREASE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  GRADUAL COOL DOWN ON TEMPS FOR HIGHS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

.TOP...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS POSTED FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL UNTIL
       MIDNIGHT AND NORTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT.  AREA IS GENERALLY
       NORH OF LAWRNECE...COUNCIL GROVE TO CONCORDIA LINE.

FRANTZ