Severe Thunderstorm Warning 130, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
325 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 1998

...MAIN PROBLEM TONIGHT IS ANY THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND BEYOND
THAT IS THE AMOUNT OF HEAT EXPECTED...

SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE NOTED EASTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING BUT WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW...FEEL BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS
ALONG NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN BORDER CLOSER TO REAL FRONT. EVEN
THERE...FEEL CHCS ARE RATHER REMOTE BUT PRECIPITATION ALREADY IN THE
FORECAST THERE AND WILL NOT FLIP/FLOP ON LOW POPS.

BEYOND TONIGHT...DON'T SEE MUCH EXCITING BUT A PERSISTENT HOT WINDY
PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WARMING TO EXCESSIVE LEVELS AT H7 PER
ETA/SPM. THIS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP ANY SFC BASED TSTM ACTIVITY OUR
AREA UNTIL EITHER SOME SGFNT SFC BASED BOUNDARY ENTERS THE PICTURE
OR SOME FEATURE ALOFT PROVIDES ENOUGH COOLING TO ERODE CAP.

NGM MOS SEEMS ABOUT 5 DEGREES TOO COOL ON DAYTIME HIGHS AND MAYBE A
FEW DEGREES TOO COOL AT NIGHT. WITH LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE AT
NIGHT...PERHAPS NGM MOS THREE HOURLY TEMPERATURES BETTER INDICATOR
OF OVERNIGHT LOWS THAN ASSOCIATED MOS VALUES. WENT THAT DIRECTION IN
FORECAST.

.TOP...NONE