Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY-RUSKIN, FL
715 PM EST THU FEB 19 1998

CONVECTION OVR CNTRL/NRN FA ASSOCIATED WITH MESOSCALE/SYNOPTIC SCALE
BNDRYS COMBINED WITH UPR JET AND UPR DIVERGENCE. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE OF SFC FNT. NHC PLOTS SFC BNDRY ACRS SRN FL WHICH
MAY TRIGGER ACTIVITY OVR THE SRN FA. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE OVR THE FA OVERNIGHT AS THE FNT APPROACHES THE FA AND THE
UPR DYNAMICS REMAIN SOMEWHAT. CONVECTION WL END NW TO SE AFTER FROPA
FRI. CURRENT FCST REASONABLE.

11

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-200150-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
405 PM EST THU FEB 19 1998

...SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER FOR MOST OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
   FLORIDA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE RACING ACROSS THE GULF COAST OVERNIGHT AND
IN THE PROCESS SPAWN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...IT WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...GENERALLY FROM ABOUT TAMPA TO
MELBOURNE. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF THIS WARM FRONT BEGINNING EARLY THIS EVENING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE ABOUT 1 INCH.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SMALL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ALONG AND WITHIN
ABOUT 40 MILES OF THE FRONT. ANY SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF STRONG WIND GUSTS...HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

LOCALIZED AREAS WHICH GET HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS MAY RECIEVE NEAR 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL...AND GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUND...THIS WILL
AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING PROBLEMS ALONG RIVERS AND IN LOW-LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. FORTUNATELY RAINFALL DURATIONS WILL NOT BE SO LONG TO
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD FLOODING.

NASH