Severe Thunderstorm Warning 231, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
239 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 1998

SCATTERED CU MAKING A RETURN TO CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOME VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT BUT THE CAP IS STILL HOLDING FOR NOW. SATELLITE SHOWS
SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ON WHICH THE CU IS FORMING BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED
TO THE 95H TO 85H LEVELS. SFC ANALYSIS HAS WARM FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTING
NORTH BUT THE BEST WINDS AT THE LOWER LEVELS APPEARS TO BE THRU
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL KANSAS.

NGM IS HAVING A REAL PROBLEM WITH THE MOISTURE FIELDS ON THIS RUN.
INSISTS THAT NOAH WILL HAVE TO BUILD AN ARK FOR SOUTHERN MO.  PREFER
THE ETA AND THE AVN IS EVEN BETTER. AVN ALSO PICKED UP ON THE
MOISTURE ALREADY IN SE KANSAS MOVING IT TO CENTRAL MO BY 12Z. THIS IN
LINE WITH THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST MO.
THE BEST LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP ACROSS WESTERN OK INTO CENTRAL KS
AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE. THIS JET DOES NOT TURN TO MO UNTIL 12Z SAT AT
WHICH TIME THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THRU SW MO AND CENTRAL MO LATER IN
THE DAY.

LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE CWA STARTING LATE THIS
EVENING AND SPREADING NORTH AND EAST BY MORNING. WITH THE HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND THE INSTABILITY ALREADY PRESENT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
TO BREAK THE CAP. ALL MODELS BRING IN PRECIP AND WILL NEED AT LEAST
CHANCE POPS THRU AT LEAST 3RD PERIOD. A 70H SHORT WAVE MOVES NE INTO
THE BUILDING RIDGE BUT THE GREATEST THREAT SHOULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN
MO.  STILL CANNOT DISCOUNT THE FACT THAT EVEN A SMALL FEATURE WILL
TRIGGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR TONIGHT (FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES)

JLN/SE KS/SGF/UNO...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOW IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10
MPH.

AIZ/VIH...PARTLY CLOUDY AND MILD. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
SOUTHWEST WIND AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

CCF

SGF EB 070/091 072/092 072 22343
JLN EB 072/093 072/095 073 22433

DUSTY

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>082-088>096-200045-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
645 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 1998

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 620 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

INCLUDING THE TOWNS OF...

PITTSBURG         ROLLA             LEBANON           JOPLIN
SPRINGFIELD       FORT SCOTT        NEVADA            CAMDENTON
NEOSHO            FORT LEONARD WOOD LAMAR             BOLIVAR
MARSHFIELD        OZARK

A WARM FRONT WAS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. VERY UNSTABLE
AIR AND SOME SHEAR EXIST IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE.  THIS WILL LEAD TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED
TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEOSHO TO AVA
TO HOUSTON.

STAY TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

SCHMIDT

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>082-088>096-200045-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
645 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 1998

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 620 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

INCLUDING THE TOWNS OF...

PITTSBURG         ROLLA             LEBANON           JOPLIN
SPRINGFIELD       FORT SCOTT        NEVADA            CAMDENTON
NEOSHO            FORT LEONARD WOOD LAMAR             BOLIVAR
MARSHFIELD        OZARK

A WARM FRONT WAS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. VERY UNSTABLE
AIR AND SOME SHEAR EXIST IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE.  THIS WILL LEAD TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED
TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEOSHO TO AVA
TO HOUSTON.

STAY TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

SCHMIDT

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>082-088>096-200045-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ...CORRECTED FOR EXPIRATION TIME...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
732 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 1998

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 620 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

INCLUDING THE TOWNS OF...

PITTSBURG         ROLLA             LEBANON           JOPLIN
SPRINGFIELD       FORT SCOTT        NEVADA            CAMDENTON
NEOSHO            FORT LEONARD WOOD LAMAR             BOLIVAR
MARSHFIELD        OZARK

A WARM FRONT WAS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. VERY UNSTABLE
AIR AND SOME SHEAR EXIST IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE.  THIS WILL LEAD TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED
TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEOSHO TO AVA
TO HOUSTON.

STAY TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

SCHMIDT

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>082-088>096-200045-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ...CORRECTED FOR EXPIRATION TIME...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
732 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 1998

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 620 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

INCLUDING THE TOWNS OF...

PITTSBURG         ROLLA             LEBANON           JOPLIN
SPRINGFIELD       FORT SCOTT        NEVADA            CAMDENTON
NEOSHO            FORT LEONARD WOOD LAMAR             BOLIVAR
MARSHFIELD        OZARK

A WARM FRONT WAS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. VERY UNSTABLE
AIR AND SOME SHEAR EXIST IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE.  THIS WILL LEAD TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED
TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEOSHO TO AVA
TO HOUSTON.

STAY TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

SCHMIDT