Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
230 AM CDT THU JUN 18 1998

WELL...SFC ANLYS HAS DOUBLE BARROW SFC LOW WITH STRONGER LOW NR
FORT PIERRE NATIONAL GRASSLAND OF SD...AND THE SECOND NR CNK.
CDFNT ELONGATED FM DDC-TCC.  BIGGEST 24 HR DIFFERENCE IS DWPNT
INCR...UP 11 DEG FAH.  WITH THE INCR IN LLVL MSTR...THE
ATMOS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE.  06Z ADAP IS -8 TO -10 OVR CWA ATTM.

DESPITE THE INSTABILITY...A 5-6 DEG CAP EXISTS.  HOWEVER...ELEVATED
CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED SINCE 330 PM YDY ACRS WRN AND NRN CWA.
JLN IS REPORTING A TRW WITH 050-070 BASE.  THESE ARE FORMING IN
FAVORABLE THETA E ADVECTION AND STRONG H8-H5 WIND FIELD.  PROFILERS
ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR 2ND STRAIGHT NIGHT.  500M-750M ARE DENOTING
50-65 KTS...AND KSGF 88D HAS 35-45KTS FM 020-030 FT.

FCST PROB OF PD...POPS...AND SVR THREAT...

00Z MODEL INITIALIZATION GIVES NOD TO AVN.  ETA IS TOO FAR S WITH PSN
OF H5 LOW OVR FE WARREN AFB OF WY.  DESPITE CAP...BELIEVE MID LEVEL
FORCING AND DAY TIME HEATING WL ERODE CAP AND ALLOW TRW TO FORM ALONG
& NR TO CDFNT AS IT SLOWLY CRAWLS TO THE E.  THIS ELIMINATES THE NGM
AND AWARDS THE PRIZE TO THE FAN.  MOST WORRIED ABOUT DAMAGING
WINDDS WITH MID LVL DRY AIR AS MAIN SVR WX THREAT.

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR TDY (FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY)

JLN/SE KS...WINDY AND WARM WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH AROUND 90.  SOUTH WIND 15 TO 30 MPH.

SGF...BREEZY AND WARM WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH 85 TO 90.  SOUTH WIND 15 TO 25 MPH.

VIH/AIZ...BREEZY AND WARM WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME COULD BE SEVERE.  HIGH NEAR 90.  SOUTH 15 TO 25 MPH.
UNO...BREEZY AND WARM WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH AROUND 90.  SOUTH WIND 15 TO 25 MPH.

CCF
SGF NB 088/068 090/069 089 24452
JLN NB 090/069 092/070 092 2454-
GORDON/JOHNSON

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-181800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
509 AM CDT THU JUN 18 1998

INCLUDING THE TOWNS OF...

PITTSBURG         ROLLA             LEBANON           JOPLIN
SPRINGFIELD       BRANSON           FORT SCOTT        NEVADA
CAMDENTON         NEOSHO            WEST PLAINS       FORT LEONARD WOOD
LAMAR             BOLIVAR           SALEM             MARSHFIELD

...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT...

AT 5 AM...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF PIERRE SOUTH DAKOTA HAD A
COLD FRONT FROM LINCOLN NEBRASKA TO JUST WEST OF WICHITA TO AMARILLO.
A DRY LINE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF TEXAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
INTO NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING BY LATE MORNING.
THEN STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND
RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH.

A STRONG LAYER OF WARM AIR OFF THE SURFACE WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...THIS CAP OF WARM AIR
WILL BEGIN ERODING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG SURFACE
HEATING AND STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND DRY LINE OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

AS WARM AND MOIST AIR BUSTS THROUGH THE CAP...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL LINE ALONG AND JUST
EAST OF THE FRONT.  STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AREA...HOWEVER NO ORGANIZED LARGE HAIL IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 4 PM
TO MIDNIGHT.

AS THE FRONT MOVES TOWARDS OUR AREA...IT WILL BEGIN STALLING OUT AND
WITH HIGH QUANTITIES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER OUR AREA...SOME AREAS
COULD RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL.  SOME LOW WATER AREAS...MAY
BECOME IMPASSABLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.  DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH WATER OF
UNKNOWN DEPTH.

SPOTTER GROUPS MAY NEED TO BE ACTIVATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STAY TUNED FOR THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT 1 PM FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION ON THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

GORDON

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-181800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
509 AM CDT THU JUN 18 1998

INCLUDING THE TOWNS OF...

PITTSBURG         ROLLA             LEBANON           JOPLIN
SPRINGFIELD       BRANSON           FORT SCOTT        NEVADA
CAMDENTON         NEOSHO            WEST PLAINS       FORT LEONARD WOOD
LAMAR             BOLIVAR           SALEM             MARSHFIELD

...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT...

AT 5 AM...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF PIERRE SOUTH DAKOTA HAD A
COLD FRONT FROM LINCOLN NEBRASKA TO JUST WEST OF WICHITA TO AMARILLO.
A DRY LINE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF TEXAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
INTO NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING BY LATE MORNING.
THEN STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND
RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH.

A STRONG LAYER OF WARM AIR OFF THE SURFACE WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...THIS CAP OF WARM AIR
WILL BEGIN ERODING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG SURFACE
HEATING AND STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND DRY LINE OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

AS WARM AND MOIST AIR BUSTS THROUGH THE CAP...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL LINE ALONG AND JUST
EAST OF THE FRONT.  STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AREA...HOWEVER NO ORGANIZED LARGE HAIL IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 4 PM
TO MIDNIGHT.

AS THE FRONT MOVES TOWARDS OUR AREA...IT WILL BEGIN STALLING OUT AND
WITH HIGH QUANTITIES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER OUR AREA...SOME AREAS
COULD RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL.  SOME LOW WATER AREAS...MAY
BECOME IMPASSABLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.  DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH WATER OF
UNKNOWN DEPTH.

SPOTTER GROUPS MAY NEED TO BE ACTIVATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STAY TUNED FOR THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT 1 PM FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION ON THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

GORD>ON