Flash Flood Warning 313, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
300 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 1998

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDCS CDFNT RUNNING ROUGHLY ALONG A KVIH-KHRO
LINE.  SEVERAL WK LOW PRES WVS HAVE BEEN MOVG ALONG THE FNT TO
ENHANCE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL OVR MUCH OF THE CWA SINCE LAST
EVENING. LATEST 88D DATA HAS SHOWN A SLOW DECREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE ACRS SERN KS AND EXTREME SWRN MO. ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA
RMNS UNDER FLOOD WARNINGS THIS MRNG.

MODELS ARE ALL INDCG THAT MAIN UPR LOW...CURRENTLY OVR NERN SD...WL
SLOWLY LIFT NEWD OVR THE NXT 48 HRS. ETA MODEL ATTEMPTS TO MOVE UPR
TROF AXIS ACRS FA QUICKER THAN NGM. ETA ALSO INDCS MORE OF A NEG TILT
TO TROF AND PUSHING PRECIP/MOISTURE FASTER TO THE E. SLOWER NGM SEEMS
MORE REASONABLE ATTM AND WL FOLLOW IT FOR THIS FCST.

MAIN FCST PROBLEMS TODAY WL CONT TO BE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL/PRECIP
CHCS AND TEMPS. BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...WOULD
LIKE TO EXTEND FFA THRU TODAY ACRS MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA.

TIME SECTIONS FM BOTH THE ETA AND NGM CONT TO INDC BEST UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION THIS MRNG...WITH A DCRG TREND LATER TODAY. THIS
INDCS THAT MAIN PRECIP AXIS WL CONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT EWD OVR THE NXT
24 HRS.

TEMPS WL BE TRICKY TODAY WITH CDFNT BISECTING THE FA. CURRENTLY...
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACRS WRN CWA...WITH MID 60S COMMON
TO THE EAST OF THE FNT. SOME AREAS JUST EAST OF THE FNT MAY SEE
THEIR HIGHS REACHED EARLY TODAY. WL USE A BLEND OF NGM/AVN MOS FOR
TEMPS ALL PDS.

FOR TNGT...IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AND WNDS DIE DOWN...WL LIKELY SEE AREAS
OF FOG DVLP. WOULD LIKE TO MENT SOME FOG IN THE ZNS TNGT...ESP IN THE
WESTERN GROUP (SGF/JLN).

THANKS TO STL AND LIT FOR COORDINATION.

RECOMMENDATIONS (FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY)

AIZ/VIH/UNO...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY...
TODAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY HIGH IN THE UPPER
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WIND AROUND 10
MPH...SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST.

SE KS/JLN/SGF...
TODAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM THIS MORNING...
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGH FROM 55 TO 60. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15
MPH.

CCF
SGF EB 056/045 061/042 064 0951-
JLN EB 057/043 062/044 065 094--

RICKARD/GORDON/TAGGART

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-061300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...RESENT FFS AS SPS...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
435 AM CDT MON OCT 5 1998

...FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUED IN EFFECT TIL 8 AM FOR AREAS EAST
OF A TUSCUMBIA TO BUFFALO TO GAINESVILLE LINE...
...FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUED IN EFFECT TIL 8 AM FOR AREAS WEST OF A
TUSCUMBIA TO BUFFALO TO GAINESVILLE LINE...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TODAY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

AT 425 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI.  THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WAS ALONG A MONTAUK STATE PARK TO
CABOOL TO GAINESVILLE LINE.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO AS MUCH
AS ONE INCH FELL BETWEEN 230 AND 430 AM FROM SALEM TO MOUNTAIN GROVE
TO GAINESVILLE.

SHANNON COUNTY SHERIFF DEPARTMENTS REPORTS THAT THE BUCK HOLLOW
CAMPGROUND NEAR AKERS AND ALONG THE CURRENT RIVER IS BEGINNING TO
FLOOD.  THE RIVER HAS RISEN TO 6 FEET AND IS STILL RISING.  IF YOU
LIVE ALONG THE CURRENT RIVER IN NORTHWEST SHANNON COUNTY...MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.

DOUGLAS COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTS THAT HIGHWAY EE IN EXTREME NORTHEAST
DOUGLAS COUNTY NEAR ANN IS FLOODED.

TEXAS COUNTY HIGHWAY DEPARTMENT IS WATCHING A LOW WATER BRIDGE
CROSSING IN THE CITY OF HOUSTON ON 63 HIGHWAY THAT IS BANKFULL THAT
MANY SOON FLOOD.

DESPITE THE LACK OF GROUND TRUTH REPORTS...RAINFALL HAS EXCEEDED
GROUND SATURATION LEVELS...THEREFORE MANY SECONDARY ROADS ARE
PROBABLY FLOODED.

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES INDICATED THAT FLOODING CONTINUED IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
ALSO...LARGER RIVERS IN THE REGION HAD RISEN OUT OF THEIR BANKS AND
FLOOD PRONE AREAS ADJACENT TO THESE RIVERS HAD FLOODED AS WELL.
FLOOD
WARNINGS WERE IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM FOR C0UNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF
A
TUSCUMBIA TO BUFFALO TO GAINESVILLE LdINE.

BE ESPECIALLY CAREFUL WHEN TRAVELING AT NIGHT.  IT IS OFTEN
DIFFICULT TO SEE FLOODED LOW WATER CROSSINGS.DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
TRAVEL
ACROSS FLOODED ROADS.

GORDON

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-061300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
630 AM CDT MON OCT 5 1998

...FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUED IN EFFECT TIL 8 AM FOR AREAS EAST
OF A TUSCUMBIA TO BUFFALO TO GAINESVILLE LINE...
...FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUED IN EFFECT TIL 8 AM FOR AREAS WEST OF A
TUSCUMBIA TO BUFFALO TO GAINESVILLE LINE...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TODAY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

AT 625 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.  THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WAS ALONG A MONTAUK STATE PARK TO CABOOL TO
GAINESVILLE LINE.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS
OF
AN INCH FELL BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM FROM SALEM TO MOUNTAIN GROVE TO
TECUMSEH.

SHANNON COUNTY SHERIFF DEPARTMENTS REPORTS THAT THE BUCK HOLLOW
CAMPGROUND ON THE JACKS FORK RIVER HAS FLOODED.  THE RIVER HAS RISEN
TO JUST OVER 7 FEET AND IS STILL RISING.  IF YOU LIVE ALONG THE
CURRENT RIVER OR JACKS FORK RIVER IN SHANNON...DENT OR TEXAS
COUNTIES...BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

DOUGLAS COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTS THAT HIGHWAY EE IN EXTREME NORTHEAST
DOUGLAS COUNTY NEAR ANN IS FLOODED.

HICKORY COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTS THAT THE BRIDGE ON COUNTY ROAD 11
NORTH OF HUMANSVILLE HAS BEEN WASHED OUT.

DESPITE THE LACK OF GROUND TRUTH REPORTS...RAINFALL HAS EXCEEDED
GROUND SATURATION LEVELS...THEREFORE MANY SECONDARY ROADS ARE
PROBABLY FLOODED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.

THE RAIN HAS EITHER ENDED OR IS VERY LIGHT WEST OF HIGHWAY 65.
RUNOFF IS RAPIDLY WINDING DOWN ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. AT THIS MOMENT...OUR INTENTION IS TO LET THE FLOOD
WARNINGS WEST OF A TUSCUMBIA TO BUFFALO TO GAINESVILLE LINE EXPIRE
ON
SCHEDULE AT 8 AM.

DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS OR ROADS WITH BARRICADES.   FIND AN
ALTERNATE ROUTE FOR YOU AND YOUR LOVED ONES.
GORDON