Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR DATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
115 PM CST THU APR 16 1998

STORMS BEGINNING TO REFIRE IN MISSOURI BOOTHEEL MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
KENTUCKY SO THIS WILL BE QUICK. 17Z SURFACE CHART SHOWS LOW PRESSURE
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH SOUTHWEST THROUGH
TERRE HAUTE TO PADUCAH TO SHREVEPORT. DEW POINTS DROPPING WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI.

MODELS BRING FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE FA BY 00Z. UNTIL THEN EVERYTHING
STILL IN PLACE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE ACROSS WEST
KENTUCKY. ADAP SHOWS NEGATIVE LIS EAST OF THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES.
MODIFIED CAPES AT BNA THIS MORNING EXCEED 2400 J/KG WITH FORECASTED
HIGHS. THREAT MOVES EAST WITH FRONT WITH ONLY THE POSSIBILITY FOR
LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ABUNDANT OVERNIGHT
FOR CLOUDS.

WITH THREAT FOR STORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SUGGEST KEEPING FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR WEST KENTUCKY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

(SPC JUST CALLED AND LOOKING AT TOR WATCH FOR WEST KENTUCKY/SOUTHWEST
INDIANA)

ML

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - VALID UNTIL 6OO AM FRIDAY MORNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY          SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTH IL
1100 AM CDT THU APR 16 1998                  SOUTHWEST IN/WEST KY

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF WESTERN
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST KENTUCKY TODAY...

THE STORMS THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT HAVE A PRODUCED AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER TENNESSEE. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA. WARM MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND LIFT
OVER THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...REACHING WESTERN KENTUCKY.

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR CAPE GIRARDEAU MISSOURI
TO NEAR JONESBORO ARKANSAS. AS THIS FRONT MOVES EAST TODAY...REACHING
CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY 700 PM...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL END.

THE AMOUNT OF STORMS ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL DEPEND UPON THE
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THAT OCCURS ACROSS THE AREA. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING OVER THE AREA FROM THUNDERSTORMS
FARTHER SOUTH. WE DO EXPECT SOME CLEARING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
WESTERN KENTUCKY. FORECAST WIND FIELDS ALSO SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

MANY AREAS RECEIVED BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN LAST NIGHT AND WITH
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
WEST KENTUCKY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND.

MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 40 MPH.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
KENTUCKY.

SPODEN/LAMM

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - VALID UNTIL 6OO AM FRIDAY MORNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY          SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTH IL
1100 AM CDT THU APR 16 1998                  SOUTHWEST IN/WEST KY

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF WESTERN
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST KENTUCKY TODAY...

THE STORMS THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT HAVE A PRODUCED AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER TENNESSEE. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA. WARM MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND LIFT
OVER THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...REACHING WESTERN KENTUCKY.

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR CAPE GIRARDEAU MISSOURI
TO NEAR JONESBORO ARKANSAS. AS THIS FRONT MOVES EAST TODAY...REACHING
CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY 700 PM...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL END.

THE AMOUNT OF STORMS ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL DEPEND UPON THE
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THAT OCCURS ACROSS THE AREA. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING OVER THE AREA FROM THUNDERSTORMS
FARTHER SOUTH. WE DO EXPECT SOME CLEARING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
WESTERN KENTUCKY. FORECAST WIND FIELDS ALSO SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

MANY AREAS RECEIVED BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN LAST NIGHT AND WITH
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
WEST KENTUCKY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND.

MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 40 MPH.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
KENTUCKY.

SPODEN/LAMM