Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
111 PM CST FRI MAR 27 1998

18Z SURFACE CHART SHOWS LOW OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH WARM FRONT
EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SATELLITE AND KINX RADAR
DEPICT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR JLN TO FSM. HRY CHART CONFIRMS
THAT SOME STORMS HAVE PRODUCED WIND DAMAGE. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR
TONIGHT INCLUDES TIMING AND TYPE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ETA AND NGM SIMILAR WITH SOLUTIONS...BUT PREFER NGM INITIALIZATION AND
TIMING A LITTLE BETTER. NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST
TO THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. BEST LIFT AT 00Z PLACED OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...REACHING MISSISSIPPI RIVER JUST BEFORE
06Z. CURRENT STORM MOVEMENT WOULD SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION...WITH EVENING
TSTMS IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND LATER IN THE EVENING WEST KY/SOUTH IL.

NGM GIVES HELICITIES IN EXCESS OF 600 M/S OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AT
00Z...COINCIDING WITH BEST UVVS. WITH ON-GOING CONVECTION NOTED ON KINX
MOVING INTO THIS REGION BY AROUND 00Z THIS SHOULD BE BEST LOCATION FOR
SVR DEVELOPMENT. WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND STORMS
APPROACHING...MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. SINCE HEATING WILL BE
LOST DURING THE EVENING WE THINK THAT SVR THREAT WILL DECREASE
ACCORDINGLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OVERNIGHT. MOS LOOKS OK WITH
LIKELY OVERNIGHT POPS.

BEST VERTICAL VELOCITIES MOVE TO SOUTHERN INDIANA BY 12Z SATURDAY...SO
THINK THAT SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD END THERE DURING THE MORNING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
DURING THE MORNING...BUT THESE SHOULD ERODE WITH DAYTIME SUN AND DRY
AIR WRAPPING AROUND UPPER LOW. SOUTHEAST MISSOURI SHOULD SEE SOME
CLEARING BEFORE SUNRISE.

FWC HAS WARMED OVERNIGHT LOWS AT PAH AND EVV DURING THE PAST TWO RUNS.
BASED ON PAST FEW NIGHTS...THINK THAT EITHER GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY
CAUGHT UP WITH WARM MINS...OR STILL A TOUCH COOL. HOWEVER...RAIN COOLED
AIR MAY CHANGE ALL OF THAT. FOOD FOR THOUGHT.

CNJ/ML