Severe Thunderstorm Warning 260, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
120 PM CDT MON JUN 29 1998

NOON SFC MAP SHOWED WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. ADAP AND
ISOTHERM ANALYSIS SHOWS BEST INSTABILITY/DIFFERENTIAL IN TEMPERATURE
ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI. VIS AND KEAX LOOP SHOWS CONVECTION ROLLING
OUT OF ERN KANSAS HEADED FOR THIS AREA. IN THE MEANTIME...CI DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND 15Z RUC SHOWING EVIDENCE OF MORE STABLE/SUBSIDENCE TYPE
CONDITIONS OVER OUR AREA...LIKELY INHIBITING TSTM DEVELOPMENT. MAIN
ISSUE IS TSTM CHANCES FOR TONIGHT.

HAVE TO LEAN TOWARD THE NGM A LITTLE...ALTHOUGH WOULD RATHER DEPEND
ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND MESO ANALYSIS. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER WRN
MISSOURI TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED LATE TODAY AS AIRMASS BECOMES VERY
UNSTABLE OVER MISSOURI. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TRACK EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL MISSOURI...THEN TURN EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO OUR FA
AFTER DARK. SHOULD BECOME A WELL ORGANIZED MCS WITH GOOD 35KT INFLUX
OF H8 AIR...BEST THETA-E ADVT INTO ECNTRL MO/SW IL BY MIDNIGHT.
H8/H3 MEAN WIND VECTOR SUPPORTS ACTIVITY SHIFTING SE INTO THE
AREA...AND THUS EXPECT HIGHEST POPS NRN 2/3...LOWEST POPS SW 1/3 FOR
OVERNIGHT. FFA NOT RECOMMENDED AT THIS TIME...THINKING WE CAN
MONITOR FOR NOW. DO SUGGEST MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN AS IS ALREADY DONE
IN SOME ZONES. FWC NOS APPEAR ON TRACK FOR LOWS AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS...DEGREES OF INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP
DECENT REAR INFLOW JETS AND STRONG WINDS MOST LIKELY IN MODERATE RISK.
PROBABLY NEED MENTION CHC OF SVR IN ZONES AS WELL...MAINLY RISK AREA
FOR NOW.

.END...

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
110>112-114-300000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
604 PM CDT MON JUN 29 1998

...A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN
KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. THE LINE OF STORMS WILL REACH
INTERSTATE 64 FROM MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS TO EVANSVILLE INDIANA BETWEEN
745 AND 915 PM. AFTER 915 PM...THE LINE WILL LIKELY CROSS THE OHIO
RIVER INTO PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY.

THE TORNADO WATCH...NUMBER 704...IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT. IT
INCLUDES CAPE GIRARDEAU...PERRY...SCOTT...AND MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. ALL OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...
AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA IS ALSO IN THE WATCH.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS
HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WINDS TO 70 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN
THE PAST HOUR.

STAY TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS. IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED...GO TO THE LOWEST FLOOR INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING.
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

YORK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
812 PM CDT MON JUN 29 1998

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0810 PM                              IL   50 MPH TSTM GUST
06/29/98   JEFFERSON                      NUMEROUS TREES AND
                                          POWERLINES DOWN IN
                                          NORTHERN PART OF THE
                                          COUNTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
849 PM CDT MON JUN 29 1998

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0735 PM                              IL   WIND DAMAGE
06/29/98   WAYNE                          SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN
                                          NORTHERN PART OF COUNTY

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