Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
125 PM CDT TUE APR 7 1998

SURFACE MAP AT 07/17Z SHOWED LOW PRESSURE NEAR MKC WITH VERTICALLY
STACKED UPPER LOW (WELL DEFINED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY). VIS LOOP
AND SFC MAP SHOWS DRIER AIR WORKING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI
AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. TO THE EAST OVER OUR AREA THE AIRMASS IS
DESTABLIZING...BUT NOTHING ON 88D ATTM. MAIN FCST ISSUES INCLUDE IS
THERE ANY CHC FOR CONVECTION THIS EVENING...THEN TSTMS/SHOWERS AGAIN
WEDNESDAY.

ETA DID A LITTLE BETTER JOB WITH LOW-TROP MSTR (NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS
THE NGM)...BUT IS STILL A LITTLE TO HIGH WITH SFC DWPTS. WILL
COMPROMISE WITH ETA/NGM AND REALITY. FCST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
ETA/MESOETA FOR WESTERN KY SHOWED LARGE SCALE DRYING TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH MSTR FAIRLY SHALLOW AROUND 3-5K. DESPITE
SOME INSTABILITY...LACK OF SUFFICIENT MSTR LIKELY A BIG HINDRANCE TO
TSTM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...ESP SOUTHERN 2/3 OF FA.
STILL CANNOT COUNT OUT VERY SMALL CHC WITH BEST THREAT LIKELY NORTH
1/3 WHERE K-INDICES FCST TO STILL BE AROUND 20-24 THIS AFTERNOON.
ADAP BEST MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE FROM NW KENTUCKY TO ST.
LOUIS...AND THIS AREA TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

FOR TONIGHT...LOW TROP DRYING CONTINUES...AND OVERALL SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLEAR EVENTUALLY. BELIEVE DWPTS WILL LOWER A LITTLE...AND
MINS SHOULD BE BETWEEN FWC/FAN.

FOR WEDNESDAY...SECOND SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO MOVE FROM TEXAS
PANHANDLE TO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER HEIGHT
FALLS AND MID LEVEL CAA...WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES
ESTABLISHED BACK ACROSS THE CWFA. DECENT VERTICAL MOTION FIELD FCST
TO DEVELOP...BOUNDARY ACROSS EAST MISSOURI TO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY...ESP TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...RETURN MSTR H9-H8 COULD MEAN SOME LOWER CLOUDS DVLPG
EARLIER IN THE DAY. ETA NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS NGM...THINK AVERAGE
PARTLY CLOUDY GOOD CALL FOR NOW. AGAIN WOULD SPLIT FAN/FWC.