Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
200 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 1998

MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED WARM FRONT MOVING INTO FORECAST AREA
(FA) FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  KPAH 88D RADAR REVEALED RENEGADE
THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME ALONG THE TENN/ARK BORDER APPEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SFC FRONT WITH ANOTHER LINEAR AREA EXTENDING WEST TO EAST ACROSS
NORTH SECTIONS OF THE FA ALONG 85H FRONT (EXTRAPOLATED 09/00Z ANALYSIS
AND ETA 09/06Z POSITION).  FORECAST ISSUES TO ADDRESS WILL BE POPS...
CLOUDS AND TEMPS.  GENERALLY FOLLOWED ETA MODEL PER RECENT PERFORMANCE.

WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN BECOMING FIRMLY ESTABLISHED THE
REST OF THE WEEK WITH SHORT WAVES EJECTING FROM HIGH AMPLITUDE WEST
U.S. TROF...ITS HARD TO FORSEE A BIG CHANGE IN POP PATTERN.  DECISION
WILL BE BETWEEN DECIDING BETWEEN CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS (DESPITE POP
OPTIMISIM OF FWC).  WITH WARM FRONT PROGGED TO BE ACROSS NORTH SECTIONS
OF FA AND THE BEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE (I304K THROUGH I312K) IN THIS
AREA ALSO...LETS GO LIKELY TODAY.  POP THREAT LESS ACROSS SOUTH
HALF...BUT WILL HAVE CELLS ON RADAR MOST OF DAY.  A SCATTERED WORDING
WILL WORK WELL HERE...WITH A 40 OR 50 PERCENT VALUE ADDED AT END OF
TEXT.  FRONT WILL STALL NORTH OF FA.  WITH NARROW BAND OF HIGH 85H
THETA-E AIR COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE OMEGA FIELD AND DIFLUENT THICKNESS
PATTERN...HAVE CONCERNS WITH AN MCS IMPACTING AREA TONIGHT (ESPECIALLY
EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  A LIKELY POP FOR THOSE SPOTS COMBINED WITH
A HIGH CHANCE FOR SEMO WILL WORK.

PARTLY CLOUDY WILL BE THE RULE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME DECREASING
RH INDICATED IN MID/UPPER TROP RH PROFILES COUNTERED BY ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE IN LOWER LEVELS WHERE RH REMAINS HIGH.

WITH WARM FRONT PASSING TRHOUGH MOST OF FA AND SOME SUNSHINE...FAVOR
FWC VALUES.

PAUL W