Severe Thunderstorm Warning 342, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 1998

A FEW ECHOES HAVE DVLPD ALG DRY LINE IN NWR OK THIS AFTN. TMPS IN
THIS AREA HAVE HEATED TO WELL ABV 100 DEG F AS PER MESONET DATA WITH
VERY UNSTABLE AMS ALG AND AHD OF THE DRY LINE. THIS AREA ALG WITH
AREA ALG WARM FNT FROM WRK KS TOWARD NERN OK TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS
ACTIVITY TONIGHT AS S/W MOVES FROM CO INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. DRY
LINE BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE FRTHR S AND CAP IS ALSO STRONGER SO CHCS
FOR TSTM DVLPMNT TAPER OFF FURTHER S. AS S/W MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
TONIGHT SFC LO WILL MOVE ACRS NRN KS WITH SFC BNDRY PUSHING INTO
CNTRL OK BY 12Z. WITH BNDRY PUSHING INTO THE RGN WILL KEEP POPS IN
AREAWIDE TONIGHT WITH THE HIEST IN THE NORTH WHERE BEST UPR SUPPORT
WILL BE LOCATED. ANY RESIDUAL STORMS SHUD EXIT THE FA EARLY SUNDAY
WITH INCRSG SW TO NWLY LO LVL FLO SHUNTING MOISTR EAST OF THE FA
DURING THE DAY. ETA SHOWS A SECOND SURGE OF COOLER AIR PUSHING IN
SUNDAY NIGHT SO WILL DROP TMPS BACK MORE ON MONDAY. EXTENDED LOOKS
DRY WITH TMPS ON THE RISE AS UPR RDG BEGINS TO BUILD OVR THE AREA.

FCSTID = 2
OKC   69  92  64  86 /  30  20  10  10
HBR   66  94  63  86 /  20  10   0   0
SPS   70  95  65  89 /  20  10   0   0
GAG   62  90  56  84 /  10  10  10   0
PNC   69  92  62  85 /  40  20  10  10
DUA   73  94  68  87 /  30  30   0   0

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-131730-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 1998

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT OVER ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH INTO KANSAS AND
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.  ABUNDANT SURFACE MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO
MOST OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS WARM FRONT.
MEANWHILE A DRYLINE IS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.  WITH TEMPERATURES HEATING TO 95 TO 105 RANGE ACROSS THE
AIR TODAY... THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE.  A
CAPPING INVERSION WILL SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON... HOWEVER THE CAP MAY BREAK LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE DRYLINE. FORECAST WINDS ALOFT INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS - ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE... BUT THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

A STRONG UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM COLORADO INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS EVENING. AS IT DOES... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT.
THESE STORMS ALSO WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

SPOTTER NETWORKS IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY
REQUIRE ACTIVATION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NETWORKS IN ALL OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... AND THE REST OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS... MAY REQUIRE ACTIVATION BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

.26.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-131730-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 1998

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT OVER ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH INTO KANSAS AND
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.  ABUNDANT SURFACE MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO
MOST OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS WARM FRONT.
MEANWHILE A DRYLINE IS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.  WITH TEMPERATURES HEATING TO 95 TO 105 RANGE ACROSS THE
AIR TODAY... THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE.  A
CAPPING INVERSION WILL SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON... HOWEVER THE CAP MAY BREAK LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE DRYLINE. FORECAST WINDS ALOFT INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS - ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE... BUT THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

A STRONG UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM COLORADO INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS EVENING. AS IT DOES... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT.
THESE STORMS ALSO WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

SPOTTER NETWORKS IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY
REQUIRE ACTIVATION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NETWORKS IN ALL OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... AND THE REST OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS... MAY REQUIRE ACTIVATION BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

.26.