Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
230 AM CST THU JAN 8 1998

SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF MIDDLE TN GOT DELUGED WITH
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
REPORTS WERE RECEIVED FROM TULLAHOMA AND WINCHESTER OF 4.68 IN
AND 4.36 IN, RESPECTIVELY.  THUS, WONT BE ABLE TO FULLY REST
UNTIL ALL LITTLE BANDS OF PRECIP HAVE FINALLY ROTATED THROUGH
THESE AREAS. THE GOOD THING IS THAT THE PRECIP IS MOVING, THE
BAD THING IS THAT MOST STREAMS AND CREEKS IN THESE AREAS ARE
ALREADY AT BANKFUL AND PROBABLY CANT TOLERATE EVEN 30 TO 40
MINUTES OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT THESE BANDS OF PRECIP TO FINALLY EXIT THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING AND FINALLY GET SOME DRY AIR (AT LEAST ALOFT) BACK
INTO OUR VCNTY.

ETA AND NGM ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT AND INDICATE SLIM RAIN CHC
FOR OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND WOULD KEEP POPS LOW FOR THAT
TIME PERIOD.

<<
MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT AND ETA AND NGM SHOW 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES DROPPING TO NEAR 1320M AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
NEAR THE MAGIC 1310M BY 36 HRS. MEANWHILE, 850-700MB RH REMAINS
BTWN 70 AND 90% AND DECENT 50H VORT MAX ROTATES NEWD OVERHEAD.
EVEN THOUGH SFC TEMPS WILL BE IN UPPER 30S OR SO, WOULDNT BE
SHOCKED IF A QUICK SPIT OF FLURRIES OCCURRED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING.

AFTER THAT, COOL WEATHER STAYS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY,
WITH SOME AFTERNOON CLEARING EXPECTED.

WOULD PROBABLY BUMP POPS UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT, IN LIGHT OF
GOOD MOISTURE AND PVA.

WOULD LIKE TO THANK MEM FOR THEIR COORDINATION AND AGREE THAT
THE CONTINUATION OF FFA FOR ERN MIDDLE TN UNTIL MID-DAY IS PROBABLY
A GOOD IDEA. SRN AREAS MAY ALSO SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL,
SUCH AS THE TSTM THAT JUST MOVED THROUGH GILES COUNTY. HOWEVER,
THE HVY RAIN THREAT (AREA-WISE) SHOULD NOT BE AS GREAT THERE AS
IN OUR ERN AREAS.
BNA 62/39/44/35 3610