Severe Thunderstorm Warning 291, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KNOXVILLE/TRI-CITIES TN
230 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 1998

A WET AND STORMY PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR MY CWA THRU 48 HRS.

ATMOS VERY UNSTABLE ATTM BUT NOTHING SO FAR HAS FIRED UP. VIS
SATELLITE PIX SHOW BUILDING LINE OF CU FM CNTRL KY INTO NW TN MOVG E.
ADAP SHOWS GOOD INSTAB W/NO CAP..BUT POOR CONVRG SO FAR. WL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR PSBL TSTM DVLPMT AS LINE MOVES INTO INCRSGLY
UNSTABLE AREA.

STNRY FRNT ACRS THE REGION WL WASH OUT TON WHILE AT THE SAME TIME COLD
FRONT DIVES SE. ONCE ANY EVENING TSTMS DIE OUT..SKIES SHLD BE PTLY
CLDY. FOR NOW WOULD FCST CHC EVE POPS.

COLD FRNT WL BECM STNRY E-W ACRS TN DURING THE DAY WED. GOOD LOW-LVL
CONVRG SEEN ALONG THE BNDRY. 500 VORT MVG ACRS NRN PORTION OF CWA DURG
THE AFTN. INSTAB INDICES IMPRSV. IN ADDITION..PRONOUNCED THKNS
DIFFLUENCE..HIGH PW VALUES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR POINT TWD TRAINING
HVY PRECIP ECHOES.  WOULD GO FOR LIKELY POPS ACRS NE TN/SW VA AND
40-50 PCT ELSW.  WED NGT INTO THU LOOKING VERY WET FOR MY CWA.  E-W
ORIENTED FRNT ACRS TN.  DIGGING UPPER TROF OVER W COAST WL ENHANCE
MOISTURE FLOW INTO BNDRY. ELONGATED VORT AXIS BEGINS TO EXTEND FM TX
UP INTO TN VALLEY. BELIEVE MODEL POPS ARE TOO LOW.  WOULD FCST GOOD
CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR ALL OF CWA WED NGT/THU.

PREFER A MIX OF FWC/FAN FOR TEMPS.

HSA