Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KNOXVILLE/TRI-CITIES TN
310 PM THU MAY 7 1998

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EAST TN IN THE WARM SECTOR.  THE
SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN SOUTHERN IN WITH A WARM FRONT ACROSS
NORTHEAST TN AND A COLD FRONT OVER MIDDLE TN.  VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS OVER AREA...SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  STILL A GOOD CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS...
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.  SHOULD PROBABLY KEEP THE
LIKELY POPS GOING OVERNIGHT ACROSS ENTIRE CWA.  MAY ALSO WANT TO
MENTION HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS EVENINGS STORMS WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER.

MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH 24 HOURS ON THE PLACEMENT OF SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT...THEN ETA A LITTLE QUICKER DURING THE LAST HALF OF
THE PERIOD.  COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE JUST EXITTING NORTHEAST TN BY
TOMORROW MORNING.  500MB LOW SHOULD BE OVER WV BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
EVEN THOUGH FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH EAST TN TOMMORROW...STILL SOME PVA
AND MOISTURE REMAINING TOMORROW AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO KEEP LOW
POPS IN FOR FRIDAY.  LOOKS LIKE DRIER WEATHER ON SATURDAY BEFORE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT.

NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FWC AND FAN TEMPERATURES...PREFER THE
COOLER FAN.

GH

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-034>047-066>074-083>087-099>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-080445-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KNOXVILLE/TRI-CITIES TN
1244 PM EDT THU MAY 7 1998

...THERE A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TENNESSEE TODAY PULLING WARM AND
MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION MAKING THE ATMOSPHERE VERY UNSTABLE.  THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND A STRONG WESTERLY
JET STREAM WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
INCLUDING SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
CROSSVILLE...TO MADISONVILLE...TO HAYESVILLE NORTH CAROLINA.

THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...BUT TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...EAST TENNESSEE AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE MEDIA
FOR ANY FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.  EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION TODAY.

GH