Flash Flood Warning 65, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KNOXVILLE/TRI-CITIES TN
1000 AM THU MAY 7 1998

ZONE FORECASTS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK.  KMRX AND KHTX 88DS SHOWING
A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS REMAINING OVER MUCH OF EAST TN AND
SOUTHWEST NC.  PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER EXTREME NORTHEAST TN AND
SOUTHWEST VA SHORTLY.  SEVERE STORMS THAT OCCURRED THIS MORNING TO OUR
WEST AHEAD OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT DISSIPATED AS THEY MOVED INTO A
MORE STABLE AIRMASS.  CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SURFACE COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY IN WEST TN MOVES ACROSS THE STATE.  STRONGEST STORMS
SHOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS
ARE GREATEST AND ALSO CLOSER TO LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 250MB JET.
MODIFIED BNA 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED CAPE AT 2500...HELICITY OF 288...
AND LI OF -6.  MODELS SHOWING STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT 18Z THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF FRONT.  PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 1.07 INCHES SO HEAVY
RAIN MAY CAUSE FLOOD PROBLEMS TOO.

RDU AND CRW...NO CHANGES RECOMMENDED.

GH

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-034>047-066>074-083>087-099>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-080445-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KNOXVILLE/TRI-CITIES TN
1244 PM EDT THU MAY 7 1998

...THERE A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TENNESSEE TODAY PULLING WARM AND
MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION MAKING THE ATMOSPHERE VERY UNSTABLE.  THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND A STRONG WESTERLY
JET STREAM WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
INCLUDING SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
CROSSVILLE...TO MADISONVILLE...TO HAYESVILLE NORTH CAROLINA.

THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...BUT TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...EAST TENNESSEE AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE MEDIA
FOR ANY FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.  EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION TODAY.

GH