Severe Thunderstorm Warning 226, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
245 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 1998

THIS FORECAST PACKAGE 'NOT' A NO BRAINER.  UPON LOOPING PAST 24 HR OF
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...CAN SEE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEPLY REFLECTED
ANTICYCLONE OVER E TX WITH PERIODIC CONVECTION INITITIATING ON
FRINGES OF SYSTEM WHERE MID-TROPOSPHERIC CAP IS WEAKER. SEEMS THAT SW
AL/SE MS HAS BEEN ON FRINGE OF REALLY HAVING ACTIVE WEATHER AS RIDGE
POSITION RETROGRADES/PROGRESSES EVER SLIGHTLY PAST 2 DAYS FROM ITS
MEAN POSITION. IN ADDITION...EVER PRESENT E-W BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
GRADIENT STILL WITH US. ALL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING CDFNT
INTO S CNTRL AL...BUT I DO NOT BUY IT PER STRENGTH OF RIDGE.  FEEL
THAT SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N THEN NE BY SUNDAY DUE TO PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGHING/TSTM OUTFLOWS BUT TRUE FRONTAL ZONE WILL COME NO FARTHER
SOUTH THAN NRN 1/3 OF ALABAMA.  CONCERN TODAY IS SLIGHTLY COLDER MID
TROPOSPHERIC TEMPS ADVECTING INTO REGION OVER TOP OF RIDGE. WINDS AT
THIS LEVEL WILL BE DIFFLUENT FLOW ATOP COLD FRONT. THUS WILL STICK TO
MY GUNS WITH NEAR LIKELY POPS (EVEN AS FAR W AS MOBILE). SIMILAR
SCENARIO TO YESTERDAY WHERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVR CNTRL
AL AND THEN MOVE SOUTH...INTERACTING WITH COASTAL SEA-BREEZE TSTMS
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER 09Z AS LAND BREEZE TYPE AND THEN
PROPAGATE INLAND AS FLOW REVERSES.  DEEP CONVECTION WILL THEN
PROGRESS TO THE COAST WITH DECENT COVERAGE THROUGHOUT EARLY-MID
EVENING PERIOD. WILL NOT BUY OFF ON NEAR 90 SUNDAY MAX TEMPS QUITE
YET (PER FWC). MORE LIKELY...AS AIRMASS DRYS A BIT AND MIXES IT WILL
STILL HAVE EVEN CHANCES OF HEATING INTO MID 90S.
MARINE ZONES...WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL STALL OVER MARINE AREA BY
LATE SUN BEFORE DISSIPATING THERAFTER. SCATTERED LAND BREEZE TSTMS
WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS
SAT EVE THROUGH SUN MORNING.

MOB 94/75/94/74 5332  PNS 95/77/95/74 5332
DTS 92/76/91/74 5332  GZH 94/73/92/71 5321 23

ALZ051>064-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-FLZ001>006-020600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
SOUTHWEST AL...NORTHWEST FL AND SOUTHEAST MS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1230 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 1998

...INTENSE TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR COLUMBUS GA TO MONTGOMERY
ALABAMA TO HATTIESBURG MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT VERY
SLOWLY SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE...AND WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY 2 PM ACROSS THE
REGION. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR
GENERALLY EAST AND SOUTH OF I-65 IN ALABAMA AND OVER THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI WILL SEE SOMEWHAT LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

STRONG RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER STORMS...HIGH
VALUES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS INSTABILITY
WILL COMBINE TO PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL ON AN ISOLATED BASIS. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAY APPROACH THREE INCHES PER HOUR IN SOME STORMS AS ATMOSPHERIC
WINDS ARE WEAK AND STORMS WILL EXHIBIT A SLOW SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
MOVEMENT.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMA PERSONNEL MAY BE REQUIRED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.