Severe Thunderstorm Warning 227, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
300 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 1998

BUSY WITH WEATHER A LITTLE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...SO NOT MUCH
TIME...WILL BE BRIEF. 12Z MODEL DATA INDICATES UPPER RIDGE PARKED
JUST WEST OF FA FOR PAST SEVERAL DAYS FINALLY BREAKS DOWN THIS
PERIOD. SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST...AND
STRONG HI PRES WEDGES DOWN EAST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS GA
AND INTO NORTH FL...AND MOST OF ALABAMA BY 12Z MON. MODELS INDICATE
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVING INTO CWA...ESPECIALLY ERN
PORTION BY...SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. NO SURE IF FRONT WILL PUSH
AS FAR SOUTH AS MODELS INDICATE...IT IS AUGUST 1ST...BUT IT WILL BE
IN GENERAL AREA. CHANCE POPS COASTAL AND EAST THIS EVENING AND EARLY
SUN. SLIGHT CHANCE LATE SUN AND SUN EVENING.

MARINE ZONES...WIND FLOW BECOMING NE THEN E THIS PERIOD AND
INCREASING TO 15 KT BY 12Z MON AS SFC HI PRES WEDGES INTO MARINE
AREA. SEAS INCREASING TO AROUND 3 FT BY PERIODS END. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS PRIOR TO FROPA.

MOB 75/91/72/91 2312  PNS 77/91/75/90 3312
DTS 76/90/73/89 3312  GZH 73/90/70/90 2111 12p

ALZ051>064-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-FLZ001>006-020600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
SOUTHWEST AL...NORTHWEST FL AND SOUTHEAST MS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1230 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 1998

...INTENSE TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR COLUMBUS GA TO MONTGOMERY
ALABAMA TO HATTIESBURG MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT VERY
SLOWLY SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE...AND WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY 2 PM ACROSS THE
REGION. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR
GENERALLY EAST AND SOUTH OF I-65 IN ALABAMA AND OVER THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI WILL SEE SOMEWHAT LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

STRONG RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER STORMS...HIGH
VALUES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS INSTABILITY
WILL COMBINE TO PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL ON AN ISOLATED BASIS. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAY APPROACH THREE INCHES PER HOUR IN SOME STORMS AS ATMOSPHERIC
WINDS ARE WEAK AND STORMS WILL EXHIBIT A SLOW SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
MOVEMENT.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMA PERSONNEL MAY BE REQUIRED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.