Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
230 PM EST SUN FEB 22 1998

WARM FRONT HAS REACHED NORTHERN CWA AND SLOWED ITS MOVEMENT...PLACING
NEARLY ENTIRE CWA IN WARM SECTOR. HELICITIES ALREADY HIGH...BUT WILL
INCREASE FURTHER AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES THROUGH MID EVENING.
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS WILL OF CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGH AND SPRING-LIKE MESO-SCALE
BOUNDARIES ABOUND. ADDITIONALLY...MID LEVEL TEMPS COOLER THAN RECENT
EVENTS AND APPROACHING TONGUE OF UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTING IN
FROM GULF...SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LARGE HAIL AS WELL.

SQUALL LINE/MCS FEATURE LIKELY WILL TRAVEL ACROSS CWA DURING THE
EVENING...WITH CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT. RAIN WILL LINGER INTO LATE
EVENING...EARLY MORNING HOURS.

NVA AND DEEP LAYER DRYING WILL ALLOW SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR MONDAY
MORNING. AS INDICATED BY TBW...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND
LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL MIXING SHOULD PROMOTE SURFACE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 30
KTS...LIKELY MEETING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DRY PATTERN TO LAST AT LEAST SEVERAL DAYS.

SPRATT

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-222359-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1155 AM EST SUN FEB 22 1998

...SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS...HAIL...AND
TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...FLOOD WATCH NORTHWARD FROM ABOUT VERO BEACH AND LAKE KISSIMMEE
THROUGH TONIGHT...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST STORMS REMAINING NORTH OF
LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES.

DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE AND PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR HAIL.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES
ONSHORE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS ABOVE 55 MPH...LARGE HAIL...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE GREATEST THREAT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR A
WARM FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO LIE NEAR A LINE FROM TAMPA TO CAPE
CANAVERAL. FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. WITH RAPID EAST NORTHEAST MOVEMENT AT 40 TO 50 MPH...PEOPLE
SHOULD SEEK SHELTER WELL IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING STORMS.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.  RAIN
MAY LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THE LATE EVENING. AVERAGE
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 1 INCH...WITH LOCAL TOTALS OF 2 OR 3
INCHES ALONG THE PATH OF THE STRONGER STORMS AND WHERE SHOWERS
REPEATEDLY OCCUR AT A LOCATION. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY AGGRAVATE CONDITIONS IN FLOODED AREAS AND MAY CAUSE FLOOD
CONCERNS IN OTHER LOCATIONS AS WELL.

PEOPLE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND ANTICIPATE THAT
THERE WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES ISSUED. KEEP ABREAST OF THE
LATEST WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS. ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS WILL BE
LIKELY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

SPRATT