Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
930 AM EST SUN FEB 22 1998

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. IMPRESSIVE BOW ECHO CURRENTLY RACING
ACROSS CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND APALACHEE BAY...MAY REACH NORTHERNMOST
COUNTIES BY AROUND NOON. SQUALL LINE SOUTH OF BOW WILL CONTINUE TO
EVOLVE OVER EASTERN GULF AND SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES EARLY MID
AFTERNOON...AND SOUTHERN ZONES MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

QUASI WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPARENTLY NEAR TPA-MLB LINE...SHOULD
REMAIN OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...AND PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT AS SQUALL-LINE/MCS FEATURE MOVES EASTWARD.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF COMPLEX ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS WELL. WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND APPROACHING STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET...SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...AS INDICATED BY SPC MODERATE RISK NORTHERN HALF OF CWA.

GENERAL ONE INCH RAINFALL ACROSS CWA LOOKS LIKELY...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES ALONG TRACKS OF STRONGER STORMS. GREATEST
CONVERGENCE/DYNAMICS EXPECTED CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT
POSSIBLE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF MCS ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY LEAD TO
SIMILAR AMOUNTS THERE AS WELL. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THREAT OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE HIGH THROUGH MID EVENING.

COORDINATION WITH TBW APPRECIATED.

SPRATT

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-222359-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1155 AM EST SUN FEB 22 1998

...SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS...HAIL...AND
TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...FLOOD WATCH NORTHWARD FROM ABOUT VERO BEACH AND LAKE KISSIMMEE
THROUGH TONIGHT...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST STORMS REMAINING NORTH OF
LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES.

DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE AND PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR HAIL.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES
ONSHORE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS ABOVE 55 MPH...LARGE HAIL...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE GREATEST THREAT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR A
WARM FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO LIE NEAR A LINE FROM TAMPA TO CAPE
CANAVERAL. FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. WITH RAPID EAST NORTHEAST MOVEMENT AT 40 TO 50 MPH...PEOPLE
SHOULD SEEK SHELTER WELL IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING STORMS.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.  RAIN
MAY LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THE LATE EVENING. AVERAGE
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 1 INCH...WITH LOCAL TOTALS OF 2 OR 3
INCHES ALONG THE PATH OF THE STRONGER STORMS AND WHERE SHOWERS
REPEATEDLY OCCUR AT A LOCATION. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY AGGRAVATE CONDITIONS IN FLOODED AREAS AND MAY CAUSE FLOOD
CONCERNS IN OTHER LOCATIONS AS WELL.

PEOPLE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND ANTICIPATE THAT
THERE WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES ISSUED. KEEP ABREAST OF THE
LATEST WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS. ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS WILL BE
LIKELY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

SPRATT