Severe Thunderstorm Warning 144, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
259 PM CST (159 PM MST) TUE OCT 27 1998

CURRENT KMAF 88D/LDS EQUIPMENT SHOWS FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ON THE WANE IN NW CWA.  MOST ACTIVITY IS NOW -SHRA IN NM
ZONES...THE PERMIAN BASIN...AND THE S PLAINS.  EARLIER ACTIVITY DUE
TO GOOD UPPER LVL DIV AND LO LVL CONV AS A RESULT OF BEING IN RRQ OF
H2 JET.  BELIEVE CLOUD COVER HELPED KEEP THINGS TO A MINIMUM
THROUGHOUT.  ST RAPIDLY CLEARING OUT IN THE W...ONLY TO BE REPLACED
BY CLOUD STREETS TO THE SW.  FARTHER W...COLD FNT EXTENDS ALONG AZ/NM
BORDER INTO CHIHUAHUA...W CLEAR SKIES BEYOND.  FROPA NOT READILY
APPARENT LOOKING AT SFC OBS.  HOWEVER...THIS IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN
THE SATELLITE PICS.  NOTING TIMING OF FRONT....ALONG WITH SOME
PROGGED MID LVL CAA OVERNIGHT...CANT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
MORE ACTIVITY DURING AT LEAST THE 1ST PD.  ALSO...BELIEVE HI DEWPTS
OVERNIGHT COULD RESULT IN BR FORMING IN PLACES NEAR MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...CLOSED LOW OVER NERN NV BEGINNING TO OPEN AS IT
INCREASES IN TILT NEGATIVELY.  IF MODELS ARE RIGHT...THIS WILL NOT
MOVE FAR ENOUGH S TO AFFECT CWA...KEEPING ALL ACTIVITY IN N NM AND
THE TX PANHANDLE...AND LEAVING THE CWA IN A DRY SWLY FLOW FOR THE
THRU AT LEAST THU.

MAF 60/79 40/20
CNM 56/83 50/--
MRF 46/78 30/10
P07 61/86 40/--

JD/SMD/RJN