Flash Flood Warning 83, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
230 AM EDT MON JUN 29 1998

RADAR LOOPS SHOW THAT -SHRA WILL COME ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CWA IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE WORST OF THE ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
OVER WV AND SE OH...CAN/T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER EARLY
THIS MORNING.

PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A CHANGE DURING THE NEXT 48HRS. WE
SHIFT FROM A ZONAL FLOW TO A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE
EAST BY 00Z WED. OUR STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL COME ACROSS US
BY 00Z TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD ADD POPS TO FCST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHAT REMAINS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS AS WELL. THE PARENT LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO
MAINE AT THAT POINT AND WOULD EXPECT TO SEE OUR TYPICAL FRONTAL "JUMP"
INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON GOING INTO TUESDAY EVENING COULD PROVE INTERESTING
AROUND HERE AS FCST LI/S DROP TO -6 TO -8C AND CAPES APPROACH 2500
J/KG.  BEST UVV AT 00Z WED IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WV ACCORDING TO
LATEST ETA DATA. CAN/T RULE OUT HEAVY RAIN WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S AND THETA-E VALUES AT OR ABOVE 350K.

HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS IN FCST CLOSER TO PERSISTENCE AS NO GREAT CHANGE
IN THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED UNTIL NW FLOW IS ESTABLISHED IN HERE LATE
IN THE FCST PERIOD.

THE FOLLOWING GUIDANCE IS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY. OFFICIAL
FORECASTS CAN BE FOUND IN THE SDFZFPKY dPRODUCT.

JKL 88/71/89 346
LOZ 90/72/88 346

INGRAM

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-291800-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1155 AM EST MON JUN 29 1998

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES THAT A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS TONIGHT IN AREAS FROM SOMERSET TO MOREHEAD. OVER
THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IN EASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AFTER 11 PM EDT/10 PM CDT...WITH THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT
LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

THIS IS A PRELIMINARY OUTLOOK...STAY TUNED TO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA SOURCES FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

SBH