Flash Flood Warning 79, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
230 AM EDT MON JUN 29 1998

RADAR LOOPS SHOW THAT -SHRA WILL COME ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CWA IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE WORST OF THE ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
OVER WV AND SE OH...CAN/T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER EARLY
THIS MORNING.

PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A CHANGE DURING THE NEXT 48HRS. WE
SHIFT FROM A ZONAL FLOW TO A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE
EAST BY 00Z WED. OUR STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL COME ACROSS US
BY 00Z TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD ADD POPS TO FCST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHAT REMAINS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS AS WELL. THE PARENT LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO
MAINE AT THAT POINT AND WOULD EXPECT TO SEE OUR TYPICAL FRONTAL "JUMP"
INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON GOING INTO TUESDAY EVENING COULD PROVE INTERESTING
AROUND HERE AS FCST LI/S DROP TO -6 TO -8C AND CAPES APPROACH 2500
J/KG.  BEST UVV AT 00Z WED IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WV ACCORDING TO
LATEST ETA DATA. CAN/T RULE OUT HEAVY RAIN WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S AND THETA-E VALUES AT OR ABOVE 350K.

HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS IN FCST CLOSER TO PERSISTENCE AS NO GREAT CHANGE
IN THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED UNTIL NW FLOW IS ESTABLISHED IN HERE LATE
IN THE FCST PERIOD.

THE FOLLOWING GUIDANCE IS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY. OFFICIAL
FORECASTS CAN BE FOUND IN THE SDFZFPKY dPRODUCT.

JKL 88/71/89 346
LOZ 90/72/88 346

INGRAM

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-300000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
525 AM EDT MON JUN 29 1998

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THAT A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE RISK INCREASES TO THE MODERATE LEVEL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY EXTENDING FROM MOREHEAD TO
LEXINGTON AND AREAS NORTH. MOST OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY...
INCLUDING JACKSON...PIKEVILLE...HAZARD...SOMERSET...AND MANCHESTER ARE
IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

A STATIONARY FRONT OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND OHIO EXTENDING BACK ACROSS
INDIANA AND ILLINOIS WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONCE THE STORMS BEGIN TO
FIRE...IT IS LIKELY THAT THEY WILL CLUSTER TOGETHER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER DEVELOPMENT. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TAKE A FEW MOMENTS NOW TO KNOW WHAT YOU WILL DO IN CASE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO WATCH IS ISSUED LATER TODAY. A FEW MOMENTS OF
EARLY PLANNING MAY SAVE YOU PRECIOUS SECONDS IF A WARNING IS ISSUED
LATER TODAY.

THIS IS ONLY A PRELIMINARY OUTLOOK...STAY TUNED TO NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE bWEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA SOURCES FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

INGRAM

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-300000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
525 AM EDT MON JUN 29 1998

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THAT A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE RISK INCREASES TO THE MODERATE LEVEL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY EXTENDING FROM MOREHEAD TO
LEXINGTON AND AREAS NORTH. MOST OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY...
INCLUDING JACKSON...PIKEVILLE...HAZARD...SOMERSET...AND MANCHESTER ARE
IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

A STATIONARY FRONT OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND OHIO EXTENDING BACK ACROSS
INDIANA AND ILLINOIS WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONCE THE STORMS BEGIN TO
FIRE...IT IS LIKELY THAT THEY WILL CLUSTER TOGETHER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER DEVELOPMENT. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TAKE A FEW MOMENTS NOW TO KNOW WHAT YOU WILL DO IN CASE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO WATCH IS ISSUED LATER TODAY. A FEW MOMENTS OF
EARLY PLANNING MAY SAVE YOU PRECIOUS SECONDS IF A WARNING IS ISSUED
LATER TODAY.

THIS IS ONLY A PRELIMINARY OUTLOOK...STAY TUNED TO NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE bWEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA SOURCES FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

INGRAM