Severe Thunderstorm Warning 258, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
230 AM EST TUE NOV 10 1998

MAIN FCST PROBLEMS TODAY ARE PORTENTIAL FOR SVR TSTMS AND DAMAGING
POST FRONTAL GRADIENT WINDS.

AT 06Z A RAPIDLY DEEPENING/INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
OVER SOUTHEAST NEB WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESE INTO SRN IND.
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN DROPPING ABOUT 1MB/HR SINCE 00Z AND
MODEL FCSTS INDICATE IT WILL CONT TO BOMB OUT TODAY AS IT LIFTS NE
TO LS BY TONIGHT. STG PRES FALLS NE AND IN VCNTY OF LOW SUGGESTS
MODEL FCSTS OF MSPL ARE ON TRACK. AS POINTED OUT IN SWODY1 LOW LVL
MOISTURE RETURN IS A LTL STRONGER THAN MODEL FCSTS. LINE OF SVR
TSTMS FM CENTRAL MO TO CENTRAL TX ATTM WL LIKELY CONT TO DVLP
NWD ALONG THE FRONT TODAY AS 60F DEWPOINTS ADVECT NWD AHD OF THE
FRONT. 49KT LLJ FM ORD ACARS AT 04Z INDICATES MODEL WIND FIELDS
CLOSE. 150KT SWLY UPR LVL JET IMPINGING ON 80KT SLY LLJ OVR CWA
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX OUTBREAK. LOW LVL SPEED/DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WITH STG WIND FIELDS AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AMS SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS ACRS THE CWA TODAY. EXPECT THE
SQUALL LINE TO MOVE THRU NC IND AND SW MI LATE THIS MORNING AND ACRS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTN. STG SUBSIDENCE AND CAA
BEHIND THE FRONT SHD TRANSPORT HI WINDS DOWN TO THE SFC WITH 50-60KT
GUSTS EXPECTED ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN/EVE.

SBN NB 061/035 043/031 046 01+32
FWA NB 062/035 044/029 047 01+21
AOH NB 063/036 045/029 048 01+31

.IWX...NONE.

JT

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-101800-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
600 AM EST TUE NOV 10 1998

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN...NORTHWEST OHIO...AND MOST OF NORTHERN INDIANA.

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER IOWA THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TO LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS. THE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND REACH NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 60
MPH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY. PEOPLE ACROSS
THE AREA SHOULD MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THEIR FAVORITE
COMMERCIAL MEDIA OUTLET FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION
TODAY.

JT

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-101800-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
600 AM EST TUE NOV 10 1998

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN...NORTHWEST OHIO...AND MOST OF NORTHERN INDIANA.

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER IOWA THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TO LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS. THE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND REACH NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 60
MPH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY. PEOPLE ACROSS
THE AREA SHOULD MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THEIR FAVORITE
COMMERCIAL MEDIA OUTLET FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION
TODAY.

JT