Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
353 PM CST SUN MAR 29 1998

...TNGT...
MAIN FOCUS IS ON DRYLN...AND WHERE IT WL END UP BY THE END OF THE
PD.  NOT AT ALL HAPPY WITH ANY OF THE NWS SHORT RANGE MODELS ON SFC
PAT EVOLUTION.  ONCE DRYLN MIXED OUT SHALLOW LYR THIS AM...HAVE SEEN
VRY LTL EWD MVMT.  CAP INDC ON 12Z OUN/DDC SOUNDINGS HAS HELD TOUGH
SO FAR...AND IN ABSENCE OF UPR FORCING...GETTING LESS OPTIMISTIC
THAT ANYTHING WL BRK AT ALL.  QUIBBLES WITH MODELS INCLD THE WAY
IT IS HANDLING THE TRAILING LO IN NE CO. SUSPECT THIS FEATURE WL
DRIFT EWD OVNGT...WHICH MAY BACK WINDS ACRS MUCH OF FCST AREA.
THIS COMBINED WITH LO IN NE NEB LIFTING OUT...SHUD CAUSE DRYLN TO
EITHER REMAIN QSTNRY OR DRIFT SLGTLY WWD OVNGT...NOT MAKING IT TO SE
KS.  SO THE QUESTION IS WHETHER ANYTHING COULD EVEN GO IN SE
KS...WITH CONVERGENCE LTD TO VCNTY OF DRYLN IN SCNTRL AND CNTRL KS.
WL CONTINUE MINIMAL POPS WERE FCST NOW. WIDE RANGE OF DEWPTS SUG
HUGE RANGE IN MINS. IF DRYLN DOES RETREAT WWD LTR
TNGT...UPSLOPE/ADVCTN FG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...SPCLY IN WRN
COUNTIES.  WL LEAVE THAT FOR SWING SHIFT TO PONDER.  WND ADVSY FOR
CNTRL/S CNTRL KS WL BE CONT TIL EXPIRATION AT 6PM IN RSL/GBD
GRP AND DROPPED ELSEWHERE.

HOWERTON

...LONG TERM...
COMPLEX FORECAST COMING UP WITH MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
FLIP-FLOPS. WILL GO WITH NCEP IDEA OF ETA/AVN
COMPROMISE...UNFORTUNATELY THIS YO-YOS THE CURRENT FORECAST
AND ADDS PRECIP BACK INTO MOST AREAS MON THRU EARLY TUE. SATELLITE
CONFIRMS TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF UPPER ENERGY HANGING BACK OVER THE SW
U.S. AND UNTIL THIS EJECTS...SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IS CERTAINLY
WARRENTED. SWODY2 SUGGESTS CHC SVR BACK TO ICT ON MON...ALL
DEPENDENT ON SURFACE LOW POSITION. FOR NOW WILL ADD CHC POPS FOR
TSRA TO SC AND KEEP FOR SE.  CE KS PROBLEMATIC...THOUGH IF AVN
VERIFIES COULD SEE SOME TSRA HERE AS WELL JUST NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT.  FOR MON NIGHT/TUES SFC LOW PULLS EAST AS UPPER LOW KICKS
OUT.  APPEARS MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP -RA
CHANCES GOING THROUGH MIDDAY TUES.  FAN/FWC TEMPS REASONABLE AND
WILL FOLLOW.

PETERSEN

FCSTRID = 03
ICT   57 65 41 56  / 20 40 50 30
HUT   53 63 40 55  / 10 40 50 30
EWK   56 64 40 55  / 10 40 50 30
EQA   59 67 43 56  / 20 60 50 30
WLD   58 66 42 57  / 20 40 50 30
RSL   49 57 35 54  / 10 30 60 30
GBD   51 60 37 54  / 10 30 60 30
SLN   54 58 36 55  / 20 40 60 30
MPR   55 61 38 55  / 20 40 60 30
CFV   63 70 46 57  / 20 60 50 30
CNU   62 69 45 56  / 20 60 50 30
K88   61 68 44 55  / 20 60 50 30

.ICT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS.
       KSZ32-33-47-48-50

KSZ032-033-047-048-050-300100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
555 PM CST SUN MAR 29 1998

...THE WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS HAS EXPIRED...

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT WERE FOUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING HAVE SUBSIDED TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MILES AN HOUR. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
TO BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MILES AN HOUR.

AS A RESULT...THE WIND~ ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR
RUSSELL...BARTON...LINCOLN...ELLSWORTH...AND RICE COUNTIES HAS
EXPIRED.

HYSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
920 PM CST SUN MAR 29 1998

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0745 PM    2 SE BLACK WOLF           KS   0.75 INCH HAIL
03/29/98   ELLSWORTH                      REPORTED BY CITIZEN

0755 PM    2 NE WESTFALL             KS   0.88 INCH HAIL
03/29/98   LINCOLN                        REPORTED BY CITIZEN

HYSELL