Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR FORECAST NUMBERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
425 AM CST MON MAR 30 1998

...SHORT TERM...
ACTIVE WEATHER THIS MORNING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE ATTM. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOW WEAK LOW NEAR
DRYLINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION JUST WEST OF GAGE. MODELS ARE IN
SURPRISING AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM IN THE SHORT TERM.
APPEARS LOW WILL DEEPEN WITH THE APPROACH OF UPPER SYSTEM...AND
TRACK NE ALONG SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS RESULTS IN A DRYLINE SURGE
ACROSS SC/SE KS THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF DYNAMICS ALOFT...AKA STG
JET STREAM COLD TEMPS...AND STG VORT MAX UPSTREAM...THIS SCENARIO
SEEMS REASONABLE...BUT MAYBE A LITTLE FAST CONSIDERING RECENT TRENDS
OF MODELS W/DRYLINE AND LOW FORMATION. WILL KEEP SHRA/TSTMS IN SC/SE
KS...WITH SHRA/PSBL TSTMS IN CE KS. TEMPS FROM MIDDLE 50S IN COLD
SECTOR (RSL) TO 75-80 IN WARM SECTOR (CNU/CFV). LOOKS LIKE WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN BLO ADV CRITERIA...EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
THIS AFTN. WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS APPEARS MAIN PCPN NEXT
12 HRS WILL BE SE OF WATCH AREA.

DAVIS

...LONG TERM...
MDLS COMING INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT BY THE END OF THIS FCST
PERIOD.  UPR LOW FCST TO MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS AND END UP NR SRN MINN
THROUGH 48 HRS.  MAIN PROBLEM THIS MORNING WILL BE WITH PCPN CHCS
FOLLOWED BY TEMPS.  SFC LOW TO MOVE NEWD DRAGGING FRONT THROUGH CWA
TONIGHT. HWVR CRNT TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW FRONTAL PROGRESSION SOME AND
WILL ADJUST FCST ACCORDINGLY.  DRY SLOT FCST BEHIND FRONT WITH
WRAPAROUND MSTR MVG INTO CNTRL ZNS OVERNIGHT. ETA/AVN ALSO MORE
AGRESSIVE BRINGING COLD AIR IN BEHIND LOW AND WOULD INDICATED SN OR
RA/SN MIX POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY.  WL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP FOR MOST
OF CWA TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST CHC TO THE NORTH AND THEN HAVE PRECIP
ENDING EARLY TMW.  RATHER COOL AIR IS EVIDENT UPSTREAM AND SHOULD WORK
ITS WAY IN HERE OVERNIGHT.  HI MSTR HANGS AROUND TMW AND MOST OF CWA
SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY.  GUID APPEARS TOO WARM FOR TUESDAY AND WILL TWEAK
THESE DOWNWARD.

MRU

FCSTID = 16
ICT   69  42  53  39 /  60  30  20   0
HUT   62  41  51  37 /  60  30  20   0
EWK   64  42  51  37 /  60  30  20   0
EQA   66  44  53  38 /  60  30  20   0
WLD   67  44  55  42 /  70  30  20   0
RSL   54  34  46  33 /  50  50  20  10
GBD   57  36  49  35 /  50  50  20   0
SLN   59  40  49  35 /  60  40  20  10
MPR   62  41  50  36 /  60  40  20  10
CFV   74  48  58  41 /  80  30  20   0
CNU   75  47  57  38 /  80  30  20  10
K88   73  47  57  38 /  80  30  20  10

.ICT...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-312400-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1147 AM CST MON MAR 30 1998

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN CENTRAL KANSAS:
BARTON      COWLEY      HARVEY      MARION      RENO     SEDGWICK
ELLSWORTH   KINGMAN     MCPHERSON   RUSSELL     SUMNER   CHASE
HARPER      LINCOLN     RICE        SALINE      BUTLER

AND IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS:
ALLEN       ELK         LABETTE     NEOSHO      WOODSON
CHAUTAUQUA  GREENWOOD   MONTGOMERY  WILSON

SYNOPSIS:
A COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  AT THE SAME TIME...COLD AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT
OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER COLORADO.  THIS WILL DESTABILIZE
THE AIRMASS ENOUGH FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND NEAR THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL ALSO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.  ALL OF THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST...WITH OTHERS REDEVELOPING AND FOLLOWING THEIR TRACKS.
THIS TRAINING OF STORMS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST OF A
SALINA TO WICHITA LINE.

THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE SOUTHEAST KANSAS STORMS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH WIND PROFILES SUGGEST THAT TORNADOS
ARE ALSO A SLIM POSSIBILITY.  SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

STRAHAN