Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
835 AM CST TUE FEB 10 1998

BIG WX IS COMING TOGETHER AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD.  APPEARS THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINS AND THEN AS MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX ROTATES IN THE THREAT OF SVR/TOR WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY.
LL INFLOW RATHER STRONG AND SFC WINDS OVER THE GULF GUSTING TO 37KTS
WITH A SHIP OB REPORTING 70 DWPTS IN THE INFLOW.  A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL UP POPS.

45
PRELIMS...
CLL T/B/ U/A  73/45 64/40  +-00
IAH T/B  U/A  75/42 65/39  +200 (2ND PERIOD MAINLY EVENING PCPN)
GLS T/B  U/A  68/48 63/44  +200 (2ND PERIOD MAINLY EVENING PCPN)

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ164-177>179-199-200-210>214-
226-227-235>238-101930-

SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
430 AM CST TUE FEB 10 1998

THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO AN EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE INTERACTING WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND ABUNDANT GULF
MOISTURE.  THESE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH TIME...
PROBABLY REACHING THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING.
IN THE MEANTIME...THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOISTEN WITH THE BRISK ONSHORE FLOW AND DESTABILIZE GIVEN THE
IMPENDING SUNRISE AND THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.

AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS.  HOWEVER...FAVORABLE WIND SHEARS ARE FORECAST AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE GREATEST THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS POOLED.  HOWEVER A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE STORMS QUICK PACE AS
THEY MOVE TO THE EAST.  THE STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO LOUISIANA.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 1/2 TO 1 INCH WITH SOME
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE.

MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
LATER THIS MORNING AS CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND TRACK EASTWARD...BRINGING A THREAT OF STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION EARLY THIS MORNING.  PLEASE REPORT ALL SEVERE
WEATHER TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR IMMEDIATE RELAY TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-
226-227-235>238-102130-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
934 AM CST TUE FEB 10 1998

...A VERY RAPIDLY DEVELOPING DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS
GOING TO BE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...

A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT FROM MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-10 FROM NEAR RICHMOND TO LIBERTY.

A NUMBER OF INGREDIENTS ARE RAPIDLY COMING TOGETHER...A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND A VERY
STRONG JETSTREAM INTERACTION AND DEEP MOISTURE RACING INLAND FROM
THE GULF WILL MERGE OVER THE REGION.  STRONG TURNING IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE WILL FAVOR THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND A
HIGH LIKELYHOOD OF TORNADOES

IF YOU PLAN TO BE OUTDOORS THIS AFTERNOON...CHECK THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION AND KEEP A WEATHER EYE ON THE SKY.

IF YOU OBSERVE SEVERE WEATHER PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

REMEMBER...THE ACTIONS YOU TAKE DURING A TORNADO EVENT MAY SAVE
YOUR LIFE AND THE LIVES OF YOUR FAMILY.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-
226-227-235>238-102240-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
954 AM CST TUE FEB 10 1998

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH
4 PM...

A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION IS EVOLVING...VERY
STRONG WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THAT CHANGE FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE TO THE WEST IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL FAVOR THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND THE FORMATION OF TORNADOES.

A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE EAST AND WILL LIKELY BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A SQUALL LINE
BRINGING WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADOES AS IT
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY TAKE ON
SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS THAT WOULD SUPPORT LONGER LIVED TORNADOES
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF MICORBURST WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

PERSONS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BE ON THE LOOK OUT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST WARNINGS ISSUED.

IF YOU OBSERVE SEVERE WEATHER REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL SHERIFFS
OFFICE AS SOON AS THE THREAT HAS SAFELY DIMINISHED.