Flash Flood Warning 66, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
220 PM CDT WED SEP 16 1998

ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH DRYING AIRMASS OVR
FA...THIS HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO OCCUR. SOME DRYING HAS OCCURRED OVER
EXT SE TX. THIS IS EVIDENT IN WV LOOP AND LCH 12Z SOUNDING. BELIEVE
E ZONES OF FA WILL HAVE A REDUCED CHC OF RAIN COMPARED TO W ZONES
FOR FIRST PART OF FORECAST PD. MODELS SHOW PW DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 2 INCHES BY TOMORROW ACROSS FA FOR THE FIRST TIME IN QUITE A
WHILE.

WILL CONTINUE FFA FOR SW PORTIONS OF FA TONIGHT DUE TO CURRENT
PROBLEMS AND LL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THIS AREA. ANY FURTHER RAINFALL
TONIGHT WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS DUE TO SATURATION OF GROUND AND FLOODED
CREEKS.

THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AT END OF FP DUE TO
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF.
HOWEVER...FA LIKELY TO BE ON SUBSIDENT SIDE DURING LAST 24 HRS OF
THE FORECAST PD...SO WILL INCLUDE SCT POPS FOR AFT HEATING INDUCED
SHWRS AND TSTMS AND CONTINUING EVENING ACTIVITY.

WILL CONTINUE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH AS LEVELS REMAIN CLOSE TO 2 FEET
ABOVE PREDICTED HEIGHTS AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH
POSSIBLE INCREASE DURING 24-36 HR TIME FRAME IF TROPICAL WV
DEVELOPS.  GIVEN PROGGED SFC PRESSURE PATN...FLOW LIKELY TO BECOME
NE ALONG TX COAST WHICH WILL NOT ALLOW FOR ANY IMPROVEMENT IN TIDE
LEVELS.

PRELIMS...
IAH C/E B/B 75/89/74/90 3323

CLL C/E B/B 75/88/73/91 4323

GLS E/B B/B 80/88/78/88 3223

SW  C/E B/B 76/88/76/90 5323 FFA TONIGHT
(WHARTON,JACKSON,MATAGORDA,COLORADO,AUSTIN)

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