Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
255 PM CST TUE JAN 6 1998

THE RAIN HAS CONTINUED WITH SPOTTY REPORTS OF FLOODING SO FAR BUT
THIS WILL LIKELY WORSEN AS THE HEAVY RAINBAND MOVES FURTHER EAST WITH
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING PARALLEL TO THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH THIS
EVENING. SECOND ISSUE IS THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT.  IT APPEARS THE
PACIFIC FRONT IS STILL DRAPED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH HAVING MADE HEADWAY THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY TO CLL.
OBVIOUSLY THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS GOING GANGBUSTERS ALONG THE
FRONT AND A SECOND SURGE IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS WITH PW GREATER THAN 1.6...SEE SPENES FOR DETAILS. THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH HAS A GOOD TEMPERATURE/DWPT DIFFERENCE ACROSS IT
WITH NORTH WINDS OF 4 TO 5 KFT DEEP AT SAT...BUT PRESSURES BEHIND THE
TROUGH NOT VERY HIGH SO DO NOT SEE IT MAKING IT OFF THE COAST BEFORE
8 PM.  UPPER LOW IS CUTOFF AND MOVING SLOWLY EAST BEFORE MAKING THE
TURN NORTHEAST FURTHER SUPPORTING THE NOTION OF THE PRE-FRONTAL BEING
THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINS AND PERHAPS DEVELOPING A SFC LOW
OVER THE SW ZONES. 15Z RUC KEEPS FRONT WELL INLAND THROUGH 3Z FRONT
SHOULD ACCELERATE TONIGHT AND EXPECT IT TO FOLLOW THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THE FRONT AROUND 4
AM. WINDS OVER THE WATER SHOULD MEET SCA CRITERIA BY SUNRISE.  PRECIP
SHOULD BE ENDING WED MORNING BETWEEN 8 AND 11 AM FOR COAST BUT THE
WRAP AROUND CLOUDS WILL BE HERE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
GRADUAL CLEARING AFTERWORDS.  TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE
LEVELS.

...RECOMMED FFA THROUGH WED MORNING
   SVR ALL ZONES TONIGHT
   MENTION OF SVR IN CWF TONIGHT AND WED MORNING.

45

PRELIMS...

CLL T E/E 052 053/040  +30
IAH T E/E 054 056/044  +40
GLS T E/E 061 059/050  +61