Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
430 AM CDT THU JUN 25 1998

TIME RATHER LIMITED AS SVR WX ROLLS ON OVR NE WI. OBVIOUS SHORT-TERM
CONCERN IS TSTM POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN TDA AND THREAT OF ANOTHER ROUND OF
SVR.

MCS DEVELOPED THIS PAST EVENING AS LOW-LVL JET INTERSECTED W-E WRMFNT
DRAPED ACROSS CNTRL WI. A SECOND MCS (THE MORE ANTICIPATED ONE)
DEVELOPED IN THE NRN PLAINS AHD OF SHRTWV TROF WHERE MSTR CONVERGENCE...
THETA-E ADV AND UPR-LVL DIFFLUECE MAXIMIZED. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
OVRNGT CONVECTION WL MAKE EXACT TSTM REDEVELOPMENT TDA HARD TO
PINPOINT...HOWEVER ANTICIPATE NRN WI TO SEE BEST SHOT AS CAP TO BE
WEAKEST AT THIS LOCATION. THE WEAKER CAP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHRTWV
TROF MVG THRU THAT AREA...HI INSTABILITY...MAX Q-VEC CONVERGENCE AND UPR
DIFFLUENCE ADDS TO THIS THEORY.

CNTRL WI A TOUGHER CALL AS 7H TEMPS WARM ABV +10 THUS A STRONGER CAP IN
PLACE. CAPES REMAIN IN THE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE WITH LI'S BLO ZERO.
WRMFNT NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTH OUT OF STATE UNTIL TNGT THUS POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR STORMS TO DVLP ACROSS NRN WI AND MV SE. PREFER TO LEAVE A
MENTION OF PSBL AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT HERE.

TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO RETURN TO VALUES SEEN YDA (AS LONG AS CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLDS DO NOT HANG AROUND LONG THIS MORNING). GUID VALUES APR
REASONABLE AND WL NOT STRAY FAR.

KALLAS

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-252100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1120 AM CDT THU JUN 25 1998

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FORECAST:
MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN MOVE EAST DURING THE EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

DISCUSSION:
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...COUPLED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL HELP
TO INITIATE MORE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL BE THE
INITIAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION:
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
WEATHER INFORMATION.

EB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-252100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1120 AM CDT THU JUN 25 1998

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FORECAST:
MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN MOVE EAST DURING THE EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

DISCUSSION:
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...COUPLED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL HELP
TO INITIATE MORE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL BE THE
INITIAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION:
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
WEATHER INFORMATION.

EB