Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
430 AM CDT THU JUN 25 1998

TIME RATHER LIMITED AS SVR WX ROLLS ON OVR NE WI. OBVIOUS SHORT-TERM
CONCERN IS TSTM POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN TDA AND THREAT OF ANOTHER ROUND OF
SVR.

MCS DEVELOPED THIS PAST EVENING AS LOW-LVL JET INTERSECTED W-E WRMFNT
DRAPED ACROSS CNTRL WI. A SECOND MCS (THE MORE ANTICIPATED ONE)
DEVELOPED IN THE NRN PLAINS AHD OF SHRTWV TROF WHERE MSTR CONVERGENCE...
THETA-E ADV AND UPR-LVL DIFFLUECE MAXIMIZED. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
OVRNGT CONVECTION WL MAKE EXACT TSTM REDEVELOPMENT TDA HARD TO
PINPOINT...HOWEVER ANTICIPATE NRN WI TO SEE BEST SHOT AS CAP TO BE
WEAKEST AT THIS LOCATION. THE WEAKER CAP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHRTWV
TROF MVG THRU THAT AREA...HI INSTABILITY...MAX Q-VEC CONVERGENCE AND UPR
DIFFLUENCE ADDS TO THIS THEORY.

CNTRL WI A TOUGHER CALL AS 7H TEMPS WARM ABV +10 THUS A STRONGER CAP IN
PLACE. CAPES REMAIN IN THE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE WITH LI'S BLO ZERO.
WRMFNT NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTH OUT OF STATE UNTIL TNGT THUS POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR STORMS TO DVLP ACROSS NRN WI AND MV SE. PREFER TO LEAVE A
MENTION OF PSBL AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT HERE.

TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO RETURN TO VALUES SEEN YDA (AS LONG AS CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLDS DO NOT HANG AROUND LONG THIS MORNING). GUID VALUES APR
REASONABLE AND WL NOT STRAY FAR.

KALLAS