Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
131 PM MDT (231 PM CDT) FRI MAY 8 1998

...CHALLENGE IS PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES...

AVN AND ETA INITIALIZED THE SOUTHWEST US 500 LOW TO DEEP BUT DID
WELL WITH NORTHERN PLAINS 500 LOW. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE
CONTINUED BLOCKY PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST A SLOWER NGM SOLUTION MAY BE
A BIT BETTER.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO
AS EXPECTED AS LACK OF CLOUDINESS AND UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH AN
APPARENT DENVER CYCLONE (AS HINTED AT BY THE NGM) KICKING THINGS OF
EARLY. 500 MB LOW MOVING TOWARD THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL STRENGTHEN BY
EVENING. STRONG VERTICAL MOTION...INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR...AND
A LITTLE DAYTIME HEATING LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE. WINDFIELDS ARE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
TORNADOES...BUT THE PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE LARGE HAIL WITH LOW
WET BULB ZEROS. AFTER SUNSET...LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WHILE SLOWLY
MOVING EAST. UPSLOPE FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH CONTINUED GOOD DYNAMICS
AND ABUNDANT MOITURE WOULD SUGGEST A GOOD SOAKING RAIN. MODELS
DIVERGE A BIT ON THIS WITH NGM WETTER THAN THE ETA AND AVN. SATURDAY
WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT RAIN AS WEAK UPSLOPE
CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COOL...GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AS
LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. ZONE BREAKS WERE
SET ACCORDINGLY. ON SUNDAY...850 AND 700 MB RIDGE
DEVELOPS...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO THE 70S.

IN THE LONG TERM...MRF DEVELOPS A LEE TROUGH MONDAY WITH WEAK
DYNAMICS. WILL MENTION CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY...SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY...WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEAST AS LEE TROUGH AGAIN DEVELOPS ALONG FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES. WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

KEPT CLOSE TO FWC AND MRF GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE.

.GLD...NONE.

DDT

COZ090>092-KSZ013-027-028-041-042-090215-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
217 PM MDT (317 PM CDT) FRI MAY 8 1998

..A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT (9 PM CDT)...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS ISSUED THE TORNADO
WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN EASTERN COLORADO: YUMA...KIT CARSON...CHEYENNE

IN NORTHWEST KANSAS: SHERMAN...WALLACE...LOGAN...GREELEY AND WICHITA.

A MOIST AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGIN TO EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN COLORADO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE...WITH HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE...AND POSSIBLY
TORNADOES.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF A TORNADO...THE SAFEST PLACE IN A HOME OR
BUSINESS IS AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR POSSIBLE.  AVOID
WINDOWS.

AT SIGNS OF AN IMPENDING STORM...TOWERING THUNDERHEADS...DARKENING
SKIES...LIGHTNING AND INCREASING WINDS...MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY.
TUNE IN NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL RADIO OR TV STATION FOR
THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

STAVISH