Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
131 PM MDT (231 PM CDT) FRI MAY 8 1998

...CHALLENGE IS PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES...

AVN AND ETA INITIALIZED THE SOUTHWEST US 500 LOW TO DEEP BUT DID
WELL WITH NORTHERN PLAINS 500 LOW. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE
CONTINUED BLOCKY PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST A SLOWER NGM SOLUTION MAY BE
A BIT BETTER.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO
AS EXPECTED AS LACK OF CLOUDINESS AND UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH AN
APPARENT DENVER CYCLONE (AS HINTED AT BY THE NGM) KICKING THINGS OF
EARLY. 500 MB LOW MOVING TOWARD THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL STRENGTHEN BY
EVENING. STRONG VERTICAL MOTION...INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR...AND
A LITTLE DAYTIME HEATING LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE. WINDFIELDS ARE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
TORNADOES...BUT THE PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE LARGE HAIL WITH LOW
WET BULB ZEROS. AFTER SUNSET...LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WHILE SLOWLY
MOVING EAST. UPSLOPE FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH CONTINUED GOOD DYNAMICS
AND ABUNDANT MOITURE WOULD SUGGEST A GOOD SOAKING RAIN. MODELS
DIVERGE A BIT ON THIS WITH NGM WETTER THAN THE ETA AND AVN. SATURDAY
WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT RAIN AS WEAK UPSLOPE
CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COOL...GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AS
LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. ZONE BREAKS WERE
SET ACCORDINGLY. ON SUNDAY...850 AND 700 MB RIDGE
DEVELOPS...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO THE 70S.

IN THE LONG TERM...MRF DEVELOPS A LEE TROUGH MONDAY WITH WEAK
DYNAMICS. WILL MENTION CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY...SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY...WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEAST AS LEE TROUGH AGAIN DEVELOPS ALONG FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES. WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

KEPT CLOSE TO FWC AND MRF GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE.

.GLD...NONE.

DDT

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-090600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1011 AM MDT (1111 AM CDT) FRI MAY 8 1998

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

CHEYENNE CO   CHEYENNE KS   DECATUR KS     DUNDY NE        GOVE KS
GRAHAM KS     GREELEY KS    HITCHCOCK NE   KIT CARSON CO   LOGAN KS
NORTON KS     RAWLINS KS    RED WILLOW NE  SHERIDAN KS     SHERMAN KS
THOMAS KS     WALLACE KS    WICHITA KS     YUMA CO

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SYNOPSIS: WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS ON THE INCREASE TODAY...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE SOUTH AND WEST OF A WRAY
COLORADO TO HILL CITY KANSAS LINE.
IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...LARGE HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...THE WINDS FROM THE
SURFACE TO 20,000 FEET DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC
DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM CELLS....ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO AS WELL AS GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES IN
KANSAS.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WILL SHOOT
SEVERAL STRONG WAVES ONTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT RANGE ALREADY TODAY...AND THE
COMBINATION OF ALL WEATHER ELEMENTS WILL MAKE THE ATMOSPHERE QUITE
UNSTABLE DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 18 HOURS. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO BEGIN DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
BY 1 PM MDT (2 PM CDT). CELLS SHOULD MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 25
MPH.

VOJTESAK