Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
231 AM MDT (331 AM CDT) THU JUL 9 1998

...TEMPS...POPS ALL PDS AND EXTENT OF HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT A REAL
   CHALLENGE THIS MORNING...

DECENT H5 VORT NOTED ON WATER VAPOR AND 00Z H5 UPPER AIR THIS
EVENING. MCS THIS EVENING OVER SW KS WEAKENING WITH SOME ACTIVITY
MAKING IT INTO SRN ZNS...BUT TOPS WARMING RAPIDLY ON SATL IR IMAGERY.
NGM NAILED ALL LEVELS AND TONIGHTS MCS/QPF BEST BY FAR AND WILL LEAN
TOWARDS FOR PACKAGE. NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDERIES NOTED ON SFC OBS
AND 88D OVER CWA. SFC FRONT/LO OVER OK PANHANDLE PROGGED TO SURGE
NWD THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF NEXT H5 VORT STREAMING AROUND BACKSIDE
OF DIRTY UPPER RIDGE (RING OF FIRE) INTO SE CO/SW KS ONCE AGAIN.
WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS MOST OF CWA FOR FIRST PD WITH BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN OVER SE CWA WHERE CURRENT ACTION IS OCCURRING.

CONVERGENCE ALONG SFC FRONT OVER SW KS SHOULD INITIATE CONVECTION
DURING THE 18Z-00Z PERIOD TODAY JUST SOUTH OF FA AND PROPOGATE NWD
INTO ALL OF CWA BY 06Z WITH DYNAMICS PULLING INTO THE CWA. ACTIVITY
MAY ORGANIZE INTO MCS BY THIS TIME WITH DEEP THETA-E NOTED ON AREA
SOUNDINGS AND PWS PROGGED IN THE 1.5-2.0 RANGE WITH AGEOSTROPHIC
LIFT FROM NEARBY H2 JET IN NEBRASKA AIDING IN THE LIFT. CATEGORICAL
POPS LOOK IN LINE WITH MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO SLOW MID LVL
WINDS. 315K THETA SURFACE ALSO SHOWS MODERATE UPGLIDE THRU 12Z THURS
ALONG AND NORTH OF SFC BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY EXTREME SERN CWA. THIS
SHOULD AID IN LIFT TONIGHT.

ESF TO BE ISSUED FOR REST OF CWA FOR LATER TODAY. DAY CREW CAN DECIDE
ON POSSIBLE FFA DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES ON QPF. SFC RIDGE LEAKS INTO
NRN CWA BY THURS AFTERNOON AS MAIN SFC FRONT/LO SAGS BACK INTO OK/TX
BY 00Z FRI. H5 VORT DOES LINGER DURING THE MORNINGS HOURS...SO CHANCE
POPS FOR THURS LOOK IN LINE. IN EXTENDED...WILL KEEP ONGOING FORECAST
WITH WEAK H5 VORTS PROGGED OVER THE AREA THRU 12Z FRI. WEEKEND LOOKS
TO DRY OUT AS H5 RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS WEST.

FWC/FAN TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE AND SEE NO REASON TO STRAY WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY-CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCE OF RAINFALL EXPECTED THRU 48 HRS.

.GLD...NONE
MARTELLO

COZ091-092-KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042-092230-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
447 AM MDT (547 AM CDT) THU JUL 9 1998

...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS
   OF EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS...

SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS AREAS WHICH ALREADY
HAVE RECEIVED UPWARDS TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL THE PAST TWO DAYS
RESULTING IN RUNOFF DUE TO NEAR SATURATED SOILS. AS A RESULT...LOCAL
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...RADIO...CABLE TELEVISION...OR
TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER
SITUATION.

MARTELLO