Flash Flood Warning 240, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
220 AM CST SAT NOV 14 1998

MEANDERING FNT THRU BRO AT 0345Z TDY WITH 4 DEG C DWPT DROP OVR THE
PAST 3H. SUM TSTMS MVG ACROSS EXTREME WRN ZAPATA WITH 1H LIGHTENING
PLOT SHOWING THUNDER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO AREA NE OF LRD NOW. MFE
AND HRL 3 DEG C COOLER ATTM. VAD WIND PROFILE AT BRO SOUTH AT 20-25
KTS OFF THE SFC....VEERING SOUTHWEST 35 KTS AT 11K FT. KDFX HOWEVER
HAS NORTHERLY COMPONENT THRU 10K FT BACKING TO THE SW AND S WITH
HEIGHT. BRO SHUD REACH HIER MAX THAN INLAND TDY AND WL SHOW THIS
TEMP REGIME. EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST (FROM POR TO PORT MANSFIELD
AND INLAND 5 TO 10 MILES)...MOST OF VLY HAS NOT RECEIVED MUCH RAFL
SINCE 11/11 AT 0022Z. UNDER .20 INCH OF RAFL RECORDED BY STM TOTAL
FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH BRO AT 0.14 INCH FRI AND
0.04 THU. SUM 1 INCH TOTALS CONFINED ALONG THE COAST.

ETA/AVN INITS BEST AND WL FOLLOW THIS FCST PD. NGM HAS BEEN
HAWING...WITH CURRENT 18% POPS TDY FM 00Z RUN AND 12Z RUN AT 40 AND
50% FOR TDY. WITH THIS IN MIND...ALONG WITH CURRENT RADAR AND STLT
PICS SHOWING MASS EXODUS OF MSTR NOW WITH THE INFILTARTION OF DRIER AIR
...FEEL MORE CONFIDENT IN TURNING OFF RA BY THIS PM. NINETY PERCENT
850-500 MB ISOHUME COMMA TO ERN TX/LA BY 6 PM TDY WITH 60% ISOHUME
CLIPPING COASTAL SECTIONS OF DEEP S TX. AVN PULLING DRY AIR INTO VLY
EVEN SOONER AND BELIEVE MECHANICS OF RA GONE BY MID PM. WL WORD
ACCORDINGLY AS HALF DAY CLDY W/RA...OTHER DRY AND DECREASING MSTR.

MESOETA SHOWING MAX TEMPS 68 TO 71 DEG F TDY. OUR CURRENT TEMP AND
DWPT AT 64 DEG F...WITH RAINY CLDY THRU MAX HEATING AND COOLER AMS
FILTERING IN...BELIEVE NGM 81 AND AVN'S 77 MAY BE TOO HIGH. WL BLEND
MESOETA AND AVN FOR MAX TEMPS. ETA/AVN SFC WINDS SIMILAR...FM NW AT
10 TO 15 MPH. MESO ETA SIMILAR.

FOR EXTENDED...MEAN RH LOW (30-50% AT BEST) THRU WED. FNT TO TX
PANHANDLE BY MON STAYS NORTH WITH NO BOUNDARIES OR MSTR TO WORK WITH
MON THRU WED. CURRENT EXTENDED FOLLOWS MANUAL PROG AND IS GOOD.

MISSING VALUABLE DATA FM BOY020 AS WAVE HEIGHT AND PD MISSING BUT
LOOK FOR WIND SHIFT WITH FROPA THERE TDY AND SEAS TO 7 FEET AT BEST
WITH SCT SHRAS/TSRAS. 58

.TODAY...CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS
EARLY...DECREASING CLOUDINESS BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WIND NEAR 15 MPH.

.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S WEST TO THE MIDDLE
60S EAST. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. NORTHWEST
WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

CCF
BRO EB 072/062 078/060 082 30/05/05/00
MFE EB 071/062 079/058 082 30/05/05/00
RGC EB 069/058 080/055 083 30/05/05/00
SPI EB 072/063 077/062 078 30/05/05/00