Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
246 PM CDT THU MAY 07 1998

...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT...

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED CWA STILL BEING INFLUENCED BY A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. A FEW SHOWERS OR SOME VIRGA HAVE PERSISTED IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES ALL DAY WITH SATELLITE SHOWING A LOT OF CU DEVELOPING
IN THE WEST. ETA MODEL IS PREFERRED TODAY AS IT WAS THE CLOSEST
WITH THE 18Z PROG. FOR TONIGHT...WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN
THE NORTH AND WEST TO COVER FOR A SHOWER OR TWO DURING THE EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR LOWS LOOK PRETTY GOOD.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GETS PUSHED EAST AS A STRONG SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS. MAIN IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE FELT IN THE
CWA UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN ONLY IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. WILL CARRY A CHANCE POP FOR TSTMS IN THE WEST AS GOOD LIFT
ALONG THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM AND SHOULD SEE ALL AREAS BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY BY LATE IN
THE DAY. WILL AGAIN STICK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE VALUES FOR HIGHS AS
TEMPS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO REACH THEM BEFORE TOO MANY CLOUDS
MOVE IN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW BEGINS TO TRACK EASTWARD. BOUNDARY STILL
CLOSE TO THE WESTERN ZONES DURING THE EVENING AND WILL LIKELY SEE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS THERE. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD NOT GET ANY
PRECIP UNTIL THE LOW MOVES FARTHER EAST AND PUTS THE REGION INTO
GOOD UPSLOPE. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT LAST MORE THAN A
FEW HOURS BEFORE THE UPSLOPE STABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE
PRECIP BECOMES JUST LIGHT RAIN OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. LOW TEMPS
SHOULD BE A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE AS CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP THEM
UP.

SATURDAY...SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
TEXAS...KEEPING THE DDC CWA IN THE UPSLOPE OVERCAST RAINY
CONDITIONS. TEMPS TO STAY COOL AND HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY BELOW
GUIDANCE. MOST AREAS PROBABLY WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S.

.DDC...NONE.

DDC 049/069 051/058 047 -16
GCK 048/070 050/057 046 217
EHA 047/072 050/060 046 247
LBL 047/072 051/059 048 247
HYS 045/066 049/056 046 216
P28 051/070 054/061 050 -16

PARKIN

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-080600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1107 AM CDT THU MAY 07 1998

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

SYNOPSIS: THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS CONTINUES TO BE
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE TODAY. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WILL COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ST JOHN TO ASHLAND.
ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

PARKIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
218 PM CDT THU MAY 07 1998

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0520 PM    6 SE FRIEND               KS   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/06/98   FINNEY

0522 PM    10 SE FRIEND              KS   0.88 INCH HAIL
05/06/98   FINNEY                         COVERED GROUND

0612 PM    13 N PIERCEVILLE          KS   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/06/98   FINNEY

0820 PM    2 ENE KINGSDOWN           KS   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/06/98   FORD

0822 PM    2 E KINGSDOWN             KS   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/06/98   FORD

GERARD