Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
317 PM CDT WED MAY 06 1998

THE THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FCST PERIOD. AT THE
SFC NUMRS BOUNDARYS EXISTED. MOST SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM
COS TO SE OF LIC AND NW OF GLD AT 18Z. TCU FIRING UP ALONG THE
WESTRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY. ANOTHER BOUNDARY CURVED FROM E OF
LAA TO LBL TO SE OF P28. THIS BOUNDARY SEPARATED DWPTS IN THE 50S
OF KS TO 60S OVER OK. BKN LN OF SHRA AND ISOLD TSHRA JUST NORTH OF
BOUNDARY FEEDING OFF OF SFC MSTR AXIS THAT EXTNDD FROM EASTERN CO NR
LIC TO LBL AND TO GAG. EXTENSIVE CU FIELD WAS ALSO OCCURRING ALONG
AND N OF THE SFC MSTR AXIS.

UPPR FEATURES THIS AM HAD 200MB JET FROM SRN CA TO CNTRL AZ AND
CURVING THRU NCNTRL AND ERN TX. 500MB LOW OVR WRN NEB WITH TROF TO
WRN OK AND ANOTHER 500MB LOW OVR ERN NV WITH TROF TO ERN AZ. GOOD
MID LVL BAROCLNC ZONE EXISTD FROM SRN KS WESTWARD TO AZ. 850MB
MSTR AXIS EXTNDD THRU WRN KS.

ETA APPEARS BEST INITIALIZED AT 500MB VORTICITY AND SFC WHEN
COMPARED TO MANUAL ANALYSIS THAN THE NGM AND AVN. ETA TAKES NEXT
500 VORT AND ASSOC COLD TEMPS ALFT OVER NW NM AND SHEARS IT EAST
ACROSS NRN OK TONIGHT. THIS INDUCES SFC LOW TO RE-DEVLP WWD TO SE CO
WITH SFC WNDS XPCTD TO VEER TO THE SE OVER SW KS TONIGHT. THIS
SHLD HELP TO FEED MSTR INTO TSTMS DVLPG OVER ESTRN CO WITH THESE
STORMS PROPAGATING SEWD INTO MSTR AXIS OVER WRN AND SW KS TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE IN THE NEAR TERM...THE ADJUSTED DDC SOUNDING TAKING AFTN
HTG INTO ACCOUNT SHOWED AN LI OF -5 WITH A CAPE OF 1100 AND
CONVCTIVE TEMP OF 70 DEGREES. THIS SHOULD AID IN SCT TSTMS IN THE
CWA THIS EVENING. THE SOUNDING INDICATED A LAYER OF DRY AT AND
BELOW 700MB WITH THE IMPLICATION OF TSTMS PRODUCING STG WND GUSTS
AND HAIL.

LAST REMNANT OF 500 VORT WILL SHEAR EWD AND AWAY FROM THE CWA BY
THURS AFTN WITH TSTMS OVRNIGHT ENDING DURING THURS AM AS SFC RIDGE
PUSHES INTO CNTRL KS AND WILL TEMPORARILY PUSH MSTR TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD BY THURS EVENING AND WILL
RESULT IN A RETURN OF SOUTHEAST WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN MSTR OVER
SW AND W KS AND EASTERN CO BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PERSISTENT
500 LONGWV TROF THAT HAS BEEN OFF THE CALIF COAST IS PROGGED BY THE
ETA TO MOVE INTO AZ BY FRI AM. THIS WILL INCREASE UVV ACROSS THE
CWA AND WITH POOLING OF MSTR XPCTD TO BE ALREADY IN PLACE BY FRI
THERE IS A XCLNT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND TSTMS OVER THE CWA FRI AND
FRI NIGHT.

.DDC...NONE.

DDC 052/074 054/070 053 534
GCK 051/074 054/070 053 534
EHA 054/076 052/075 055 624
LBL 053/075 053/072 055 624
HYS 049/071 047/069 051 634
P28 055/076 053/074 056 534

D.STEINMETZ/NICHOLS