Severe Thunderstorm Warning 269, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
358 AM CDT WED JUL 15 1998

MAIN PROBLEMS WITH THIS SHIFT WERE FACILITY A/C PROLEMS FIRST 2 HOURS OF
SHIFT...THEN PLAYING CATCH UP WHILE WATCHING MARGINAL SEVERE
CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN 1/3RD OF CWA.

QUICK ANALYSIS OF 08Z SFC MAP SHOWS TROUGH ACROSS NEBRASKA
ORIENTED NE TO SW...WITH A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE
CENTER OVER EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS.  CONVECTION HAS BEEN
SLOW TO ADVECT ANYWHERE BUT RATHER FEED INTO MOIST SOUTHEAST INFLOW.
SO...WILL PEEL OFF W COUNTIES FOR MORNING CONVECTION ENDING
EARLY...THEN KEEP LOW 20-40 POPS GOING FOR LATE AFTN
REDEVELOPMENT.

TEMPS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN MID 90 RANGE TODAY WITH WARMEST IN SE
ZNS.  WEAKLY ORGANIZED COLD FRONT IN NRN PLAINS WILL FILTER
SOUTHWARD TOWARD EVENING...TEAMING UP WITH ABOVE MENTIONED TROF
AND THEN PUSH SOUTHWARD TONIGHT INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN A NW-NE WINDSHIFT ACROSS CWA...AND THEN WITH NE FLOW ON
THURS...HIGH TEMPS TO BE ABOUT A CATEGORY COOLER...IN 90 TO 95 RANGE.
WITH ALL THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND...WILL KEEP SMALL POPS GOING
EVERYWHERE BUT WITH 30 POPS IN SE ZNS WHERE DEW PTS TO STILL BE NEAR 70.

ONLY CHANGES TO EFP ATTM ARE SLIGHT WORDING CHANGES.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY.  OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE TOPZFPDDC.

DDC 096/069 093/070 096 222
GCK 095/068 095/069 096 322
EHA 095/065 093/065 097 422
LBL 096/069 095/070 097 322
HYS 096/067 094/069 097 233
P28 098/071 096/073 098 232

.DDC...NONE.

BURKE

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-160600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1130 AM CDT WED JUL 15 1998

A FEW SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY TO CHECK ON
WATER LEVELS IN SOME OF THE CREEKS AND STREAMS OF FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

SYNOPSIS:  AN UNORGANIZED WEATHER PATTERN WILL STILL CONDUCIVE TO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS A
SMALL COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS...MAINLY IN
PARTS OF MORTON AND STEVENS COUNTY.  THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL AND COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE SOME HAIL EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...A WIND SHIFT THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH ABOUT THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA FROM SYRACUSE TO NEAR MEDICINE LODGE IS THE RESULT OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FIRE THIS AFTERNOON FROM NEAR HAYS...TO NEAR DODGE
CITY TO NEAR MEDICINE LODGE.  ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM COULD BECOME
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME HAIL...THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED
AREAS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS...AS THE ATMOSPHERE HEATS UP...MORE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  ALTHOUGH NOT ON AN ORGANIZED SCALE...A
FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE HAIL BUT THE BIGGEST THREAT
WILL BE GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WIND AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR MORE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE:
HTTP://WWW.DODGECITY.NET/NWS

HUTTON

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-160600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1130 AM CDT WED JUL 15 1998

A FEW SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY TO CHECK ON
WATER LEVELS IN SOME OF THE CREEKS AND STREAMS OF FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

SYNOPSIS:  AN UNORGANIZED WEATHER PATTERN WILL STILL CONDUCIVE TO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS A
SMALL COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS...MAINLY IN
PARTS OF MORTON AND STEVENS COUNTY.  THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL AND COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE SOME HAIL EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...A WIND SHIFT THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH ABOUT THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA FROM SYRACUSE TO NEAR MEDICINE LODGE IS THE RESULT OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FIRE THIS AFTERNOON FROM NEAR HAYS...TO NEAR DODGE
CITY TO NEAR MEDICINE LODGE.  ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM COULD BECOME
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME HAIL...THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED
AREAS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS...AS THE ATMOSPHERE HEATS UP...MORE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  ALTHOUGH NOT ON AN ORGANIZED SCALE...A
FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE HAIL BUT THE BIGGEST THREAT
WILL BE GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WIND AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR MORE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE:
HTTP://WWW.DODGECITY.NET/NWS

HUTTON

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-160600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1145 AM CDT WED JUL 15 1998

A FEW SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY TO CHECK ON
WATER LEVELS IN SOME OF THE CREEKS AND STREAMS OF FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

SYNOPSIS:  AN UNORGANIZED WEATHER PATTERN WILL STILL BE CONDUCIVE TO A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS A
SMALL COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS...MAINLY IN
PARTS OF MORTON AND STEVENS COUNTY.  THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL AND COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE SOME HAIL EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...A WIND SHIFT THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH ABOUT THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA FROM SYRACUSE TO NEAR MEDICINE LODGE IS THE RESULT OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FIRE THIS AFTERNOON FROM NEAR HAYS...TO NEAR DODGE
CITY TO NEAR MEDICINE LODGE.  ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM COULD BECOME
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME HAIL...THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED
AREAS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS...AS THE ATMOSPHERE HEATS UP...MORE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  ALTHOUGH NOT ON AN ORGANIZED SCALE...A
FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE HAIL BUT THE BIGGEST THREAT
WILL BE GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WIND AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR MORE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE:
HTTP://WWW.DODGECITY.NET/NWS

HUTTON