Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
259 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 1998

...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD...

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED ONE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND ANOTHER OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
OCCURRING OVER THE ENTIRE CWA AND RESULTING IN MOISTURE BEING PULLED
INTO ABOUT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AVN MODEL REALLY HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE SFC PATTERN AT THIS TIME AND HAVE FOLLOWED IT. ALL THE
MODELS VARY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WITH NONE OF THEM HAVING A
REAL GOOD HANDLE ON THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PUSHING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTRY.

WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN COLORADO IS ALREADY SETTING OFF
CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE IS PROGRESSING TO THE EAST
AND WILL THEREFORE CARRY A SMALL POP ACROSS THE CWA TODAY TO COVER.
UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE TODAY WITH SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND PUSH TO THE NORTH
DURING THE DAY KEEPING GOOD SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. EXPECT
TO SEE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND TO FUEL CONVECTION LATER TODAY.
SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR FAN VALUES.

TONIGHT BECOMES THE REAL INTERESTING TIME WITH AVN INDICATING THE
BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE DDC CWA WITH SFC LIS IN THE -3 TO
-6 RANGE. THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA AND SOUTHERN UTAH WILL
PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING
HOURS...AND WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION...EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH EXACTLY WHERE THIS WAVE WILL GO AND WITH THE
TIMING...WILL CARRY A 50 POP EVERYWHERE AND LET THE DAY SHIFT TRY
AND NAIL THINGS DOWN A LITTLE BETTER. TEMPS TO REMAIN MILD UNDER
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE INTO MONDAY WITH BEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE STILL OVER THE DDC CWA AND BOUNDARY REMAINING OVER
NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. FOR NOW...WILL JUST KEEP A CHANCE POP
GOING ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD SEE AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AROUND
AGAIN WITH UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING...SO WILL LOWER TEMPS JUST A BIT.

.DDC...NONE.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY.  OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE TOPZFPDDC.

DDC 079/062 074/055 079 353
GCK 079/060 073/053 079 353
EHA 083/058 077/053 083 353
LBL 083/061 078/055 083 353
HYS 076/061 071/054 077 353
P28 081/066 079/061 080 353

PARKIN

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-250600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1117 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 1998

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS
TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...WILL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS.  THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INITIALLY EXPECTED TO FIRE OVER EASTERN COLORADO
AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS AND MOVE TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 96.

GERARD

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-250600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1117 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 1998

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS
TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...WILL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS.  THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INITIALLY EXPECTED TO FIRE OVER EASTERN COLORADO
AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS AND MOVE TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 96.

GERARD

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-250600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
304 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 1998

...SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AS WELL AS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FIRING ALONG AND NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT IS LOCATED ALONG HIGHWAY 96 FROM TRIBUNE TO
NESS CITY.  THIS BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAVE BEEN MOVING EAST
AND WILL MOVE INTO THROUGH THE SCOTT CITY AND DIGHTON AREAS AND EAST
THROUGH NESS CITY AND LACROSSE THROUGH 600 PM.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING.  TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

GERARD

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-250600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
304 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 1998

...SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AS WELL AS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FIRING ALONG AND NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT IS LOCATED ALONG HIGHWAY 96 FROM TRIBUNE TO
NESS CITY.  THIS BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAVE BEEN MOVING EAST
AND WILL MOVE INTO THROUGH THE SCOTT CITY AND DIGHTON AREAS AND EAST
THROUGH NESS CITY AND LACROSSE THROUGH 600 PM.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING.  TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

GERARD