Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
325 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 1998

FCST PROBLEM FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL BE POSS OF TSRA OVR NRN ZNS
THIS EVE AND CHC FOR TSRA OVER AREA SUN EVE/NGT.

CNVCTN HAS BEEN FIRING OVER NERN COLO AND IS MOVING INTO NWRN KS THS
AFTN.  APPRS THIS BEING CAUSED BY COMBINATION OF WK LOW LVL MOCON
AND TO A GREATER EXTENT...UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND
BOTTOM OF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF NRN ROCKIES.  THIS AREA
OF TSRA NOT LOOKING TOO IMPRESSIVE AND NOT SURE IT WILL CONT LONG
ENOUGH TO MAKE IT INTO MY ZONES.  WILL MAKE FINAL DECISION TO
INCLUDE POPS IN THAT AREA AT ZONE ISSUANCE.  AREA OF ST OVER SERN
1/3D OF CWA HAS BEEN SLOWLY ERODING AND BEING REPLACED BY A CU FIELD
XTNDG FROM CNTRL CWA TO THE NW.  SFC MOIST CONV ON SHORT FUSE
COMPOSITE PINPOINTING THIS AREA.  IT ALSO SHOWS A 4 TO 6 DEG CAP
OVER THE AREA.  WILL BE HARD TO MAINTAIN CNVTN TWRD EVE.
HAVE GNRLY GONE WITH MO CLR SKIES OVR WRN ZNS WITH PT CLDY SKIES
FURTHER EAST TNGT.  LOW LVL FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY LGT AND WITH S/W
RIDGE MOVING OVER AREA TNGT...CHC FOR DZ SHOULD BE NIL.  WILL MENTN
AREAS OF FOG IN ERN SCTNS WHERE LOW LVL MOIST IS HIGHEST.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO.  MAIN PROBLEM BEING MODELS ABILITY TO HANDLE WK RIPPLES
FCST TO MOVE OUT OF ROCKIES IN WRLY FLOW ALOFT.  NRN REACHES OF SRN
STRM S/W MOVING ACRSS CWA ATTM.  WV LOOP SHOWS AN AREA OF UPPR LVL
DIVRG OVER NV THS AFTN MOVING EAST ABOUT 25 KTS.  AT THAT SPEED AND
TRAJECTORY IT SHOULD BE APPCHNG CWA BY LT SUN AFTN.  HAVE GONE WITH
CHC POPS OVER CWA FOR SUN EVE/NGT AS RESIDUAL LOW LVL MOIST AND AFTN
HEATING SHOULD PRIME ATMS OVER AREA.

GUIDANCE TMPS SEEMED A FEW DEG TOO LOW TNGT MOST AREA AND WILL GO A
LITTLE ABV.  STAYED CLOSER TO THE COOLER FAN TMPS FOR NEXT FEW DAYS.

.DDC...NONE.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY.  OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE TOPZFPDDC.

DDC 059/080 058/080 057 003
GCK 056/078 057/079 056 003
EHA 056/080 056/078 058 003
LBL 055/083 058/081 059 003
HYS 059/081 059/078 058 203
P28 062/083 062/083 060 003

GERARD