Flash Flood Warning 50, NWS State College, PA

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
310 AM EST FRI MAR 20 1998

...ALREADY COORD WITH PIT...PHL...BUF AND BGM CONCERNING EXPANDED
WINT STM WARNINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL COUNTIES AND LAURELS...ALONG
WITH EXTENDED FLOOD WATCHES OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES THROUGH
THIS MORNING...

...DISCUSSION...
MAJOR EARLY SPRING SNOWSTORM IN THE WORKS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...FOLLOWING RATHER WIDESPREAD SMALL STREAM/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING OVER PARTS OF SCENT PA THIS MORNING.

995 MB SFC LOW CURRENTLY JUMPING THE COOL AIR WEDGE EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...AND REFORMING ALONG THE SE VIRGINIA COAST.

UPR BLYR TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP RAPIDLY VIA DYNAMIC COOLING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
AS UPPER LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

IN THE MEANTIME...SHALLOW SUBFREEZING LAYER CONTINUES TO FILTER
SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...LEADING TO A SEVERAL HOUR
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET THROUGH 12 TO 14Z.

THE BLYR BECOMES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WET SNOW ACROSS ALL BUT THE
LOWER SUSQ AND EXTREME SOUTHCENTRAL COUNTIES BY MID AFTERNOON.
ETA APPEARS TO BEST HANDLE THIS RAPID TRANSITION TO A HEAVY WET SNOW
WITH THE MESO ETA 950-900 MB WINDS A BIT TOO EASTERLY THROUGH 18Z
(THUS LEADING TO A SOMEWHAT MILDER UPPER BLYR).

AS HAS BEEN TYPICAL WITH PAST STORMS THIS WINTER...AND APPEARS TO BE
A CONSISTENT MODEL DEFICIENCY WITH FULLY DEVELOPED EAST COAST STORMS...
QPF/SNOWFALL IS HIGHLY UNDERESTIMATED OUTSIDE THE PRIMARY AREA OF
WARM ADVECTION/ISENT LIFT IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS.

I LIKE THE MESO ETA'S DEPICTION AND ORIENTATION OF THE PRECIP SHIELD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN COUNTIES OF OUR CWA...BUT WOULD STILL
EXTEND THIS HIGHER QPF SHIELD APPROX 50 MILES FURTHER WEST WITHIN
REGION OF STG MID/UPPER LVL DEFORMATION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PER CALLS TO PHL AND PIT WILL UP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE MTNS N
OF IPT TO MORE THAN 1 FOOT...AND GO WITH A GENERAL 6 TO 9 INCHES
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE LAURELS.

WILL GO WITH A WINT WEATHER ADVIS FOR THE LWR TERRAIN OF SCENT PA
...AND A FEW INCHES TWD DARK ACROSS THE LWR SUSQ.

SOME OF THE PROJECTED ACCUMS ACROSS THE NCENT MTNS MAY EVEN BE ON
THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE...CONSIDERING THE PERSISTENT DEEP EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.

WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOCAL 2 FT AMOUNTS IN SULLIVAN...TIOGA
AND NRN LYCOMING COUNTIES OF OUR CWA BY SUNDAY MORNING.

LAMBERT

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033-034-037-041-042-045-046-049>0
53-058-211700-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT- WINTER STORM WARNING/ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
530 AM EST SAT MAR 21 1998

...A WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
   FOR ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

...A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
   FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA...THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
   AND THE MIDDLE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY...

...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
   TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
...WARREN...MCKEAN...POTTER...TIOGA...ELK...CAMERON...CLINTON...
LYCOMING...SULLIVAN...CLEARFIELD...CENTRE...CAMBRIA...BLAIR...
SOMERSET...BEDFORD...UNION...SNYDER...NORTHUMBERLAND...MONTOUR...
COLUMBIA...AND SCHUYLKILL.

COUNTIES IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ARE...HUNTINGDON...JUNIATA
AND MIFFLIN.

A MAJOR EARLY SPRING STORM INTENSIFYING ALONG THE VIRGINIA COAST
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY...TO JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY COAST TONIGHT.

A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET HAS BEEN FALLING THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE COUNTIES BORDERING NEW YORK STATE WITH UP TO
ONE-QUARTER INCH OF ICE COATING MANY SURFACES IN THIS AREA.

IN PLACES WHERE RAIN IS STILL FALLING...A GRADUAL CHANGEOVER TO WET
SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE WARNING AREA DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS OF TODAY.

THE SNOW WILL THEN FALL HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WARNING
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE SNOW WILL BE ESPECIALLY HEAVY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF WILLIAMSPORT WHERE OVER 1 FOOT
OF HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
LAUREL HIGHLANDS...ANYWHERE FROM 4 TO 10 INCHES IS EXPECTED BY THE
STORMS LATE TONIGHT.

IN THE ADVISORY AREA OF SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL CHANGE TO SLEET...AND THEN WET SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA BY LATE
TONIGHT.

THIS HEAVY WET SNOWFALL MAY BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS...AND COULD ALSO
CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT IN MANY AREAS AS
ROADS BECOME SNOW AND SLUSH COVERED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER
STATEMENTS...ADVISORIES...AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THIS UPCOMING
BOUT OF WINTER WEATHER.

SIMILAR INFORMATION CAN BE OBTAINED VIA THE STATE COLLEGE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT HTTP://IWIM/NWS.NOAA.GOV/IWIN/PA/PA.HTML

LAMBERT

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033-034-037-041-042-045-046-049>0
53-058-211700-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT- WINTER STORM WARNING/ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
530 AM EST SAT MAR 21 1998

...A WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
   FOR ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

...A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
   FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA...THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
   AND THE MIDDLE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY...

...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
   TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
...WARREN...MCKEAN...POTTER...TIOGA...ELK...CAMERON...CLINTON...
LYCOMING...SULLIVAN...CLEARFIELD...CENTRE...CAMBRIA...BLAIR...
SOMERSET...BEDFORD...UNION...SNYDER...NORTHUMBERLAND...MONTOUR...
COLUMBIA...AND SCHUYLKILL.

COUNTIES IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ARE...HUNTINGDON...JUNIATA
AND MIFFLIN.

A MAJOR EARLY SPRING STORM INTENSIFYING ALONG THE VIRGINIA COAST
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY...TO JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY COAST TONIGHT.

A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET HAS BEEN FALLING THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE COUNTIES BORDERING NEW YORK STATE WITH UP TO
ONE-QUARTER INCH OF ICE COATING MANY SURFACES IN THIS AREA.

IN PLACES WHERE RAIN IS STILL FALLING...A GRADUAL CHANGEOVER TO WET
SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE WARNING AREA DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS OF TODAY.

THE SNOW WILL THEN FALL HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WARNING
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE SNOW WILL BE ESPECIALLY HEAVY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF WILLIAMSPORT WHERE OVER 1 FOOT
OF HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
LAUREL HIGHLANDS...ANYWHERE FROM 4 TO 10 INCHES IS EXPECTED BY THE
STORMS LATE TONIGHT.

IN THE ADVISORY AREA OF SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL CHANGE TO SLEET...AND THEN WET SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA BY LATE
TONIGHT.

THIS HEAVY WET SNOWFALL MAY BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS...AND COULD ALSO
CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT IN MANY AREAS AS
ROADS BECOME SNOW AND SLUSH COVERED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER
STATEMENTS...ADVISORIES...AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THIS UPCOMING
BOUT OF WINTER WEATHER.

SIMILAR INFORMATION CAN BE OBTAINED VIA THE STATE COLLEGE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT HTTP://IWIM/NWS.NOAA.GOV/IWIN/PA/PA.HTML

LAMBERT