Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Flash Flood Warnings in 1998
Flash Flood Warning 104, NWS State College, PA
NWS State College, PA issued this flash flood warning at Aug 15, 1998, 12:54 AM EDT for Elk County, McKean County, Pennsylvania. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 15, 1998, 12:54 AM EDT (04:54 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 15, 1998, 4:00 AM EDT
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- NWS State College, PA
- Area
- Whole counties
Counties Elk County, PA, McKean County, PA
The radar
The State College radar (KCCX), 92 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 4.9 hours before the alert went out and 146 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 989 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -9 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1078 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 24 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 43 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 58 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.2
- Supercell composite
- 2.2
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 TTAA00 KCTP 150455 FFWCTP PAC047-083-150800- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1254 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 1998 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS EXTENDED THE * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN MCKEAN COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA NORTHERN ELK COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA * UNTIL 400 AM EDT *ALTHOUGH THE HEAVY RAIN HAS TAPERED OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...RUNOFF FROM THE VERY HEAVY RAIN EARLIER THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLOODING THIS MORNING. UP TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN WAS ESTIMATED BY RADAR NEAR CLERMONT IN SOUTHERN MCKEAN COUNTY. PEOPLE LIVING NEAR FLOOD PRONE AREAS IN SOUTHERN MCKEAN AhND NORTHERN ELK COUNTIES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WATER LEVELS. DON'T DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD! OSTUNO
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Aug 14, 8:55 PM EDT, 3 hours 59 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 14, 8:55 PM EDT, 3 hours 59 minutes before
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 855 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 1998 WILL SEND PHLADMCTP WITH WORK ZONES BY 915 PM. WILL PROBABLY OPT FOR ALLOWING WATCH TO EXPIRE GIVEN PROGRESS OF HEAVY RAINS ACROSS FAR SRN TIER. NRN TIER RAIN ESTIMATES MONSTROUS...8+ IN ACCORDING TO DOPPLER. NO GAGES TO LEND GROUND TRUTH BUT SOME FLOODING OCCURRING. WILL TAPER THINGS OFF UP THERE AS WELL AS PER LATEST TRENDS. ...DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR SHOWS WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE EDGING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OF MAINLY HEAVY RAIN SLIDING ACROSS SRN TIER WHILE MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION FIRES ALONG MESO CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY NORTHWARD TO NY BORDER. MODELS PICK UP ON FAIRLY WELL DEFINED UPPER PV LOBE AND ASSOC JET STREAK WITH SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS. POTENT LEFT EXIT HELPED FIRE UP LOW LEVEL SLY RESPONSE WHICH RESULTED IN SURGE OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION. WELL DEFINED BACK EDGE OF PRECIP OVER WRN PA SHUD CONTINUE TO TREK ACROSS CWA OVERNIGHT WITH PV LOBE...ALLOWING SLOW BUT SURE WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. THE TRICK WILL BE TO FORECAST SOMETHING OTHER THAN BROADBRUSH POPS FOR SATURDAY. ETA SHOWS MORE COMPACT NATURE TO QPF SHIELD AND SUGGESTS PV LOBE SHEARS OUT ALLOWING DRYING ACROSS ALL BUT FAR SERN ZONES AS DAY WEARS ON. NGM...WHICH LOOKS WAY OVERDONE THRU 12 HRS WITH QPF...KEEPS LIGHT AMOUNTS OVER MOST OF REGION THRUOUT THE DAY. UNFORTUNATELY THE MESO ETA DIDNT RUN SO THE BATTLE WILL BE BETWEEN THE NGM AND ETA. AVN TYPICALLY BROADBRUSHES QPF TOO MUCH SO CANT BE COUNTED ON. WHAT LOOKS LIKE WILL HAPPEN IS THAT SHORTWAVE CAN BE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AS OVERNIGHT WEARS ON...ALLOWING WEAK LOW LEVEL JET TO MOVE EAST AND NORTH OF REGION DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR CONVECTION. UPPER JET CORE SLIDES EAST AND DURING MUCH OF TOMORROW WE ARE UNDER THE LEFT ENTRANCE OF THE JET STREAK ALOFT. THIS SHUD HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTION ALONG WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THEN AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY WE SEE ANOTHER SPOKE OF UPPER ENERGY APPROACH FROM THE WEST...ASSOC WITH APPROACHING WEAK SFC FRONT. ETA PUTS FRONT OVER NW MTNS BY AROUND 00Z TMRW EVE WITH BROADER FEATURE ALSO PORTRAYED BY NGM/AVN. THINK DAYSHIFT PROBABLY HANDLED THINGS ABOUT AS WELL AS CAN BE EXPECTED GIVEN CONFLICT BETWEEN NGM/ETA. MAY DOWNPLAY POPS A TAD OVER NRN ZONES...THIS WILL BE A LAST MINUTE DECISION OF IT HAPPENS. .CTP...NONE. LA CORTE
In the hours before
Local storm report, Aug 14, 8:29 PM EDT, 4 hours 25 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PENNSYLVANIA
829 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 1998
TIME(EDT) .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
0800 PM CLERMONT PA FLOODING
08/14/98 MCKEAN ROADS FLOODED IN THE TOWN
OF CLERMONT.Local storm report, Aug 14, 8:29 PM EDT, 4 hours 25 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PENNSYLVANIA
829 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 1998
TIME(EDT) .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
0800 PM CLERMONT PA FLOODING
08/14/98 MCKEAN ROADS FLOODED IN THE TOWN
OF CLERMONT.The office that day
Everything else NWS State College, PA issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 9:52 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | CTP | Elk, McKean | 3 hr |
| Aug 15, 5:24 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | CTP | Bedford | 3 hr |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Pennsylvania, 1998Every flash flood warning in 1998
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.