Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Flash Flood Warnings in 1998

Flash Flood Warning 103, NWS State College, PA

August 14, 1998Elk County, McKean County, Pennsylvania

NWS State College, PA issued this flash flood warning at Aug 14, 1998, 9:52 PM EDT for Elk County, McKean County, Pennsylvania. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Aug 14, 1998, 9:52 PM EDT (01:52 UTC)
Expired: Aug 15, 1998, 12:50 AM EDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS State College, PA
Area: Whole counties

Counties Elk County, PA, McKean County, PA

The radar

The State College radar (KCCX), 92 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 1.9 hours before the alert went out and 146 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 989 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -9 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1078 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 43 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 58 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.2
Supercell composite: 2.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
TTAA00 KCTP 150151
FFWCTP
PAC047-083-150450-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
952 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 1998

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  MCKEAN COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
  ELK COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA

* UNTIL 1250 AM EDT

* AT 945 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED
TO INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER SOUTHERN
MCKEAN COUNTY AND NORTHERN ELK COUNTY. THESE STORMS WERE
FINALLY MOVING TO THE EAST AT AROUND 10 MPH.

* THE DOPPLER RADAR IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ESTIMATED THAT MUCH OF
SOUTHERN MCKEAN COUNTY HAS RECEIVED OVER 3 INCHES OF RAIN THIS
EVENING...WITH AREAS NEAR THE TOWN OF CLERMONT RECEIVING UP TO 9
INCES OF RAIN SINCE 5 PM.

* LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS INDICATE THAT MANY SMALL STREAMS
AND CREEKS HAVE OVERFLOWED THEIR BANKS AND ARE CAUSING FLOODING
NEAR IN CLERMONT...CROSBY AND BETULA. ONE UNOFFICIAL REPORT OF A
MAN BEING RESCUED FROM HIS HOME NEAR CLERMONT BY BOAT WAS RECEIVED
AT 935 PM EDT.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS
WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD! MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGER OF FLOODING.

DANGELO


&

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Aug 14, 8:55 PM EDT, 57 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 14, 8:55 PM EDT, 57 minutes before

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
855 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 1998

WILL SEND PHLADMCTP WITH WORK ZONES BY 915 PM. WILL PROBABLY OPT FOR
ALLOWING WATCH TO EXPIRE GIVEN PROGRESS OF HEAVY RAINS ACROSS FAR
SRN TIER. NRN TIER RAIN ESTIMATES MONSTROUS...8+ IN ACCORDING TO
DOPPLER. NO GAGES TO LEND GROUND TRUTH BUT SOME FLOODING OCCURRING.
WILL TAPER THINGS OFF UP THERE AS WELL AS PER LATEST TRENDS.

...DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR SHOWS WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE EDGING EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OF MAINLY HEAVY RAIN SLIDING ACROSS SRN
TIER WHILE MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION FIRES ALONG MESO CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY NORTHWARD TO NY BORDER.

MODELS PICK UP ON FAIRLY WELL DEFINED UPPER PV LOBE AND ASSOC JET
STREAK WITH SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS. POTENT LEFT EXIT HELPED
FIRE UP LOW LEVEL SLY RESPONSE WHICH RESULTED IN SURGE OF HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION. WELL DEFINED
BACK EDGE OF PRECIP OVER WRN PA SHUD CONTINUE TO TREK ACROSS CWA
OVERNIGHT WITH PV LOBE...ALLOWING SLOW BUT SURE WIND DOWN FROM WEST
TO EAST.

THE TRICK WILL BE TO FORECAST SOMETHING OTHER THAN BROADBRUSH POPS
FOR SATURDAY. ETA SHOWS MORE COMPACT NATURE TO QPF SHIELD AND
SUGGESTS PV LOBE SHEARS OUT ALLOWING DRYING ACROSS ALL BUT FAR SERN
ZONES AS DAY WEARS ON. NGM...WHICH LOOKS WAY OVERDONE THRU 12 HRS
WITH QPF...KEEPS LIGHT AMOUNTS OVER MOST OF REGION THRUOUT THE DAY.
UNFORTUNATELY THE MESO ETA DIDNT RUN SO THE BATTLE WILL BE BETWEEN
THE NGM AND ETA. AVN TYPICALLY BROADBRUSHES QPF TOO MUCH SO CANT BE
COUNTED ON.

WHAT LOOKS LIKE WILL HAPPEN IS THAT SHORTWAVE CAN BE EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST AS OVERNIGHT WEARS ON...ALLOWING WEAK LOW LEVEL JET TO
MOVE EAST AND NORTH OF REGION DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR
CONVECTION. UPPER JET CORE SLIDES EAST AND DURING MUCH OF TOMORROW
WE ARE UNDER THE LEFT ENTRANCE OF THE JET STREAK ALOFT. THIS SHUD
HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTION ALONG WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THEN AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY WE SEE ANOTHER
SPOKE OF UPPER ENERGY APPROACH FROM THE WEST...ASSOC WITH
APPROACHING WEAK SFC FRONT. ETA PUTS FRONT OVER NW MTNS BY AROUND
00Z TMRW EVE WITH BROADER FEATURE ALSO PORTRAYED BY NGM/AVN.

THINK DAYSHIFT PROBABLY HANDLED THINGS ABOUT AS WELL AS CAN BE
EXPECTED GIVEN CONFLICT BETWEEN NGM/ETA. MAY DOWNPLAY POPS A TAD
OVER NRN ZONES...THIS WILL BE A LAST MINUTE DECISION OF IT HAPPENS.

.CTP...NONE.

LA CORTE

In the hours before

Local storm report, Aug 14, 8:29 PM EDT, 1 hour 23 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PENNSYLVANIA
829 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 1998

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0800 PM    CLERMONT                  PA   FLOODING
08/14/98   MCKEAN                         ROADS FLOODED IN THE TOWN
                                          OF CLERMONT.

Local storm report, Aug 14, 8:29 PM EDT, 1 hour 23 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PENNSYLVANIA
829 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 1998

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0800 PM    CLERMONT                  PA   FLOODING
08/14/98   MCKEAN                         ROADS FLOODED IN THE TOWN
                                          OF CLERMONT.

The office that day

Everything else NWS State College, PA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 15, 12:54 AM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	CTP	Elk, McKean	3 hr
Aug 15, 5:24 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	CTP	Bedford	3 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Pennsylvania, 1998 Every flash flood warning in 1998

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.