Tornado Warning 4, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
220 PM CST WED FEB 18 1998

ANOTHER VERY NICE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FA.  MORE CLOUDS TODAY THAN WE
HAVE SEEN LAST SEVERAL DAYS...BUT STILL PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.  WINDS
TODAY HAVE BEEN STRONGER THAN WE THOUGHT.  MORE TYPICAL SE WINDS
TODAY VS THE WESTERLY WINDS WE EXPERIENCED ON TUE.  ANOTHER FRONT IS
SCHEDULED TO MOVE THROUGH THU AM WITH A NWLY FLOW.  THIS WILL BRING
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH PLEASANT TEMPS CONTINUING.  NEXT CHC
FOR PCPN WILL COME OVER THE WEEKEND WITH NEXT H5 LOW AND TROF MOVG
ACROSS THE REGION.

SATELLITE PIX SHOW LOW CLOUDS PARALLEL TO THE LOW LVL FLOW OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE CENTERED FURTHER
N AND THESE REGIONS COULD SEE RW/TRW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING.  ONE S/W WILL CONT TO MOVE E/NE THIS EVENING THEN
ANOTHER WILL MOVE THRU BY EARLY THU AND THIS WILL SEND A FRONT INTO
THE FA.  SMC PRODUCT FROM ADAP INDICATES A BULLSEYE OF CONVERGENCE
NEAR ALI WITH AN AXIS FROM BRO TO ALI TO SAT.  LI PRODUCT INDICATES -
2 TO -4 SO WILL NEED TO INSERT WIDELY SCT POPS ACROSS THE FA THIS
EVENING AND SWING SHIFT CAN AMEND IF NECESSARY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY UNTIL SUNSET THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH.  AS FRONT
APPROACHES EARLY THU AM...WNDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY THEN SHIFT
TO THE NW.  LATEST GRIDDED DATA DOES NOT INDICATE THE MID LVL
MOISTURE IN THE MID LVLS AS EARLIER RUNS DID.  WILL STILL MAINTAIN
P/C FOR THU BUT MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO CHG THIS.

IN THE EXTENDED MRF STILL SHOWS A H5 LOW NEAR ELP BY 12Z SAT.  THIS
LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUN SO PCPN WILL
LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE.  LOOKS LIKE THE SAT-SUN TIME FRAME WILL BE
THE BEST TIME SLOT FOR PCPN.  THE WARM EL NINO PATTERN CONTINUES!!

----------------------------------------------------------------
.TONIGHT...P/C WITH A % CHC OF RW/TRW...CRP/VCT.  SE WINDS 15 TO 20
MPH AND GUSTY CRP/VCT...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 MPH CRP...NEAR 10
VCT.
///LRD/// WINDS...S/SE NEAR 10 MPH...SHIFTING TO THE NW NEAR 15 MPH
LATE.

.THURSDAY...P/C.  NW WINDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...P/C.

.FRIDAY...P/C.
----------------------------------------------------------------
CRP  EB 053/071  045/072  050  2100
NGP     058/071  051/070  054
ALI  EB 052/073  043/074  048  2100
LRD  EB 051/073  046/073  050  1100
VCT  EB 048/068  044/070  048  2100

MSL..73..