Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Gaylord, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1045 AM EST MON MAR 30 1998

CURRENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION
FIRING ALONG THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM IA NE INTO SRN WI AND FAR NRN
LOWER MI. MOVEMENT IS TO THE NE AT AROUND 40 MPH. MODIFIED APX 12Z
SOUNDING INDICATES A CAPE OF CLOSE TO 1000...LIS OF -3 AND TTS OF 48
FOR THE AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A GOOD FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN LOWER MI.
HOWEVER...GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LACKING UNTIL EARLY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT WHEN JET COUPLING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER WI AND LOWER MI.

GOING FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH CURRENT SITUATION/TRENDS. WILL ONLY
UPDATE TO FRESHEN WORDING. WILL ALSO HAVE TO ADJUST TEMP AND WIND
FORECAST FOR FAR NRN LOWER MI SINCE FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THIS
AREA...RESULTING IN A 7 DEGREE TEMP DROP AND A WIND SHIFT.

EME

MIZ008-015>036-041-042-311200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1135 AM EST MON MAR 30 1998

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN...

DISPATCHERS PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING EASTERN UPPER
AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOVE NORTHEAST AT 40 TO 45 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE AREA FROM TRAVERSE CITY...TO MANISTEE...TO CADILLAC BY 200 PM THEN
OVERSPREAD THE REST OF NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THE EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
THEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND
HAIL GREATER THAN 3/4 INCH IN DIAMETER. ALL THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN DEADLY
LIGHTNING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR
THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION CONCERNING THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OR EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

EME

MIZ008-015>036-041-042-311200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1135 AM EST MON MAR 30 1998

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN...

DISPATCHERS PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING EASTERN UPPER
AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOVE NORTHEAST AT 40 TO 45 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE AREA FROM TRAVERSE CITY...TO MANISTEE...TO CADILLAC BY 200 PM THEN
OVERSPREAD THE REST OF NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THE EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
THEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND
HAIL GREATER THAN 3/4 INCH IN DIAMETER. ALL THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN DEADLY
LIGHTNING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR
THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION CONCERNING THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OR EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

EME

MIZ020>036-041-042-310100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
301 PM EST MON MAR 30 1998

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EST FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FOR A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN UNTIL 800
PM EST. THE WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

LEELANAU                 ANTRIM                   OTSEGO
MONTMORENCY              ALPENA                   BENZIE
GRAND TRAVERSE           KALKASKA                 CRAWFORD
OSCODA                   ALCONA                   MANISTEE
WEXFORD                  MISSAUKEE                ROSCOMMON
OGEMAW                   IOSCO                    GLADWIN
ARENAC

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IS MOVING INTO A WARM...MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS TEMPERATURE CONTRAST IS PROVIDING THE SPARK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA... BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM ALPENA TO LAKE CITY.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 40 MPH. WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL OVER ONE INCH IN DIAMETER WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
WILL DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS SHOULD WATCH FOR THREATENING
WEATHER AND LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR
TELEVISION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

OX