Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Gaylord, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1002 PM EST SUN MAR 29 1998

00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH A
WARM FRONT EAST FROM THE LOW INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN. ALL SHRA/TSRA HAVE LIFTED OUT OF NRN LWR...HOWEVER ACTIVITY
CONTINUES ACROSS ERN UPR. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS CEN/NRN WI AND
WRN UPR ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AND PRESENT NO THREAT TO THE CWA AT
THIS TIME. GRIDDED THICKNESS PATTERN SHOWS A POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHT
EASTWARD DEFLECTION OF THESE STORMS FROM THEIR CURRENT TRACK HOWEVER.

00Z APX SOUNDING SHOWS A SLIGHT CAP JUST ABOVE 850 MB... AS WELL AS A
NEARLY ISOTHERMAL BOUNDARY LAYER... WHICH IS OVERCOMING THE FORCING
FROM THE NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. GRIDDED DATA INDICATES BEST
FORCING REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE TORNADO WATCH AREA. AM
INCLINED TO REMOVE ALL MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
ACROSS NRN LWR. WILL LEAVE SKIES HERE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS BLOWOFF FROM THE
WISCONSIN STORMS STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN
FOR ERN UPR AS ACTIVITY BEGINS TO DIE DOWN.

TEMPS ARE BEING TRICKY TONIGHT...LK HURON SHORELINE HAS COOLED
CONSIDERABLY TO AROUND 40 DEGREES....DO NOT FEEL THEY WILL DROP MUCH
LOWER TONIGHT AND WILL ADJUST LOWS ACCORDINGLY. THERE IS A WIDE
TEMPERATURE RANGE ACROSS THE NW LWR ZONE. SOME OF THE WARMER SITES IN
THIS AREA HAVE LOST SOME CLOUD COVER...AND FEEL THAT THEY WILL COOL OFF
ENOUGH TO APPROACH THE CURRENT RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. ALSO PLAN
ON DROPPING ERN UPR A TAD...WILL LOOK AT 03Z OBS BEFORE MAKING FINAL
CHANGES.

OX