Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
242 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 1997

.SHORT TERM...

VERY INTERESTING SCENARIO SETTING UP THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WHETHER MCS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS
CWFA TONIGHT. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL KS...WITH LOW TO MID 70S DEWPTS SURGING NORTH INTO THE
FRONT ON 10 TO 20 KT SFC FLOW. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING
CAPES OF AOA 4000 J/KG...BUT CAP IS STILL HOLDING. IN ADDITION...
WIND PROFILERS ARE SHOWING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES.
EXPECT APPROACHING DYNAMICS/LIFT TO ERODE CAP TONIGHT.

MESOSCALE SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR AN MCS ACROSS MAINLY ERN KS
TONIGHT. WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE INDICIES NR 60...ONCE TSTMS FIRE THEY
SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM ORGANIZING. MAIN PROBLEM IS WHEN AND WHERE.
ON THE FIRST ACCORD...LOOKS AS THOUGH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS
OVR THE ERN 1/2 OF THE FA. MEANWHILE...THE SAME AREA SEES LOW LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION...PVA...APPROACH OF NM THERMAL TROF...AND
DECENT VEERING PROFILE. THEREFORE...WILL GIVE HIGHEST POPS
TO ERN ZONES. EXPECT TO SEE STORMS FIRE MAINLY AFTER DARK AS
850 MB JET PICKS UP. SVR TSTMS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE....WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT AS IT MOVES SE ALONG THE THCKNESS
LINES.

GENERALLY LIKED THE ETA FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS IT INITIALIZED
BEST AND MAINTAINED THE BEST SOLUTION AT 18Z.

DAVIS

.LONG TERM...

WILL LEAN TOWARD ETA FOR SOLUTION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY FRONT
CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK THROUGH KANSAS.  IT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
STATE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL CONTINUE POPS TIL MID-MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHCENTRAL KANSAS UNTIL FRONT PASSES AREA
BECAUSE ANY LINGERING RW-.  WILL KEEP POPS IN SE KS ALL DAY WITH
MOISTURE AHEAD OF FRONT COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT.
SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO MO DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY SO MUCH OF
THE ENERGY WILL BE OUT OF AREA.  FRONT WILL BE IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND BECOME STATIONARY.  FRONT WILL DRIFT BACK NORTH LATE
MONDAY BUT WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF ALL ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
WILL GO NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

STEWART

ICT   72  90  68  89 /  30  30  10   0
HUT   71  89  67  88 /  30  30  10   0
EWK   68  88  66  87 /  30  30  10   0
EQA   70  90  67  88 /  30  30  10   0
WLD   72  91  68  88 /  30  30  10   0
RSL   66  85  64  86 /  20  30   0   0
GBD   66  86  65  86 /  20  30   0   0
SLN   67  87  66  87 /  30  30   0   0
MPR   67  86  66  87 /  40  30   0   0
CFV   72  88  67  87 /  40  40  10  10
CNU   70  88  67  86 /  50  40  10  10
K88   70  87  66  86 /  40  40  10  10

.ICT...
KS...NONE.